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Gold’s record-breaking rally stirs debate on bull market longevity once Covid-19 vaccines arrive

  • Investors continued their rush into exchange traded funds, which in October sucked in more than double the final inflow in 2019
  • Among gold bears, Macquarie Group this week declared the ‘end of the cyclical bull market’ and said prices have probably peaked

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A worker plunges a gold ingot into a cooling bath at the Uralelectromed Copper Refinery, operated by Ural Mining and Metallurgical Co. (UMMC), in Verkhnyaya Pyshma, Russia on July 30, 2020. Photo: Bloomberg
Bloomberg
Gold’s record-breaking bull market is facing an existential question after this month’s pharmaceutical breakthroughs: what happens to the rally once Covid-19 vaccines start rolling out?

Gold is viewed by many as the archetypal haven asset, inevitably driven higher in times of turmoil. By that logic, a beginning of the end of the crisis would signal a turning point for the rally. But the precious metal also serves as a hedge against inflation. And with the massive amounts of money being poured into the global economy this year, any signs of rising consumer prices could send investors diving back to bullion.

For most of 2020, conditions could hardly have been better for gold, as the deluge of money printing, weaker dollar and global uncertainty spurred demand, driving up prices. Tumbling real US government bond rates sparked steeper gains in July and August, eventually sending spot gold to a record above US$2,075 an ounce.
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While prices have fallen a bit since then, investors continued their rush into exchange traded funds (ETFs), which at their peak in October had sucked in nearly 900 tons of the yellow metal this year, more than double the final inflow in 2019.

Collection of waste metal for Tokyo 2020 Olympic medals on track

Collection of waste metal for Tokyo 2020 Olympic medals on track

In a matter of weeks, everything changed.

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