Investors in Japan might keep a close eye on sales of the homely horse mackerel as an early warning of any trouble ahead.
The good news is that in the more confident Japan of this year, tuna remains king.
So says Mizuho Securities economist Kenta Ishizu, who believes he has found a leading indicator of Japanese consumer demand that relies on two of the most common items on a sushi menu: Japanese horse mackerel and tuna.
Ishizu was looking for patterns in Japanese consumer behaviour that would point to the impact of “Abenomics” -- the monetary and fiscal stimulus central to the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Horse mackerel, also called jack mackerel, or “aji” in Japanese, is an oily fish that is far cheaper than bluefin tuna or “maguro,” the mainstay of sushi menus around the world.
Using data on household spending, Ishizu has developed a “Tuna-Mackerel Index”, which shows how much the average Japanese family is spending on tuna relative to mackerel based on government-compiled data.
