Trade recovery lightens the gloom
Real demand for mainland's exports is stronger than the data indicates, officials say, citing value of deliveries and high growth in many provinces
Mainland authorities may have found something to smile about in a slew of discouraging economic data: trade recovery.
Government spokesmen Sheng Laiyun from the National Bureau of Statistics and Shen Danyang from the Ministry of Commerce said the official export and import figures had underestimated the real - and favourable - trade performance.
Shen told a press briefing yesterday that the ministry remains "fully confident" that exports and imports would meet the government's annual target of a 7.5 per cent growth this year. "The trade situation will recover in the second quarter," likely starting in May, Shen said.
The mainland is expected to maintain a trade surplus for some time, though the gap would gradually narrow, he added.
Exports in March surprisingly fell 6.6 per cent from a year earlier. Imports dropped by a sharper 11.3 per cent, generating a US$7.7 billion surplus. Shen attributed the unexpected decline to the "unusually high" comparison base last year, particularly in trade with Hong Kong.
The trade situation will recover in the second quarter, [likely in May]
Analysts believe that last year's trade figures were inflated to mask an influx of speculative funds betting on yuan appreciation.