Crops at risk as El Nino worries ripple across Asia
The extreme weather that wreaked havoc last year could get worse if forecasts are correct
It is with some irony that the most feared weather anomaly in Asia and around the Pacific rim was named after the Christ child.
An El Nino is forming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the worry for farmers, weather forecasters and government officials is that its ferocity may match the one which struck in 1997-98, which killed thousands, caused billions of dollars in damage and is acknowledged as the worst in recorded history.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said in a report on Tuesday that "El Nino development is possible as early as July" and added that "the likelihood of an event developing remains at least at 70 per cent".
China's National Marine Environmental Forecasting Centre has warned about the formation of an El Nino during the northern hemisphere spring, Xinhua reported.
A strong El Nino could wreck grain and vital cash crops around the region
What makes the prospect of an El Nino this year particularly daunting is the spike in extreme weather that has taken place as the planet has warmed, with a winter polar vortex paralysing the United States and the typhoons without end which roared in from the Pacific last year, demolishing the central Philippines.
The wildcard question now is how much worse could things get if a severe El Nino strikes this year.
An El Nino is an abnormal warming of waters in the Pacific which hits every three to seven years. Its appearance causes havoc in weather patterns from Africa to China and on to South America.
Withering drought would blight countries such as Indonesia and Australia, floods would plague China and Peru, while the annual monsoon upon which Indian farmers depend so heavily could stall and sputter.
The phenomenon was first noticed by anchovy fishermen off South America in the 19th century because of El Nino's habit of showing up around Christmas time and devastating the fishery when warm waters displace the nutrient-rich Humboldt Current running up the west coast of South America.
For Asia, a strong El Nino could wreck grain and vital cash crops around the region.
An El Nino would normally push heavy rain bands into southeastern China, mainland scientists quoted by Xinhua said. In the 1997-98 El Nino, flooding along the Yangtze River killed more than 1,500 people in the country's rice belt. Meanwhile, rainfall in the northern, wheat-growing areas of the mainland might be less than normal, possibly leading to drought.
El Nino could affect grain production in China and India.
The International Grain Council estimates 2014-15 wheat production in China at 120 million tonnes, down from 121.7 million in 2013-14. India's wheat output for 2014-15 is seen by the council at 95 million tonnes.
Last year, China was forced to import about 7 million to 8 million tonnes of wheat after poor weather decimated its wheat crop. Most of the grain was bought from Australia and the United States, sparking a rally in world wheat prices. If China has to import wheat due to El Nino, Australia may not be around to pick up the slack as drought could batter its wheat farms as well and force Beijing to look elsewhere for the grain.
India's Meteorological Department has already warned of a below-average monsoon this year, which would have implications for farms across the country. The monsoon in India normally gets going in June.
Both China and India are also major producers of rice. The IGC estimates China will produce 142.3 million tonnes of milled rice in 2013-14 while India is forecast to produce 105.6 million tonnes. China's rice-growing provinces are in the south, where El Nino rains could wash out the crop.
The line-up of countries whose own crops are imperilled by a severe El Nino include Indonesia and the Philippines, the two most populous nations in Southeast Asia with a combined population of well over 300 million people. In past El Ninos, both were hit hard by drought.
Indonesia is the world's top producer of palm oil, which it exports mainly to China. The country is also the world's No3 producer of cocoa, the No2 producer of natural rubber, a major producer of coffee and a major importer of rice and sugar.
The Philippines was blitzed last year by a seemingly endless string of typhoons which climaxed in November when a powerful storm obliterated the city of Tacloban on the central island of Leyte. Manila has imported 1.3 million tonnes of rice from Vietnam to check surging domestic prices which are at a three-year high. An El Nino could well aggravate the rice shortage.
