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Reformist governments in emerging markets win over investors

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Vendors carry cauliflower for sale at a vegetable wholesale market in New Delhi December 15, 2014. Photo: Reuters
Reuters

Emerging markets' popularity with investors is ebbing as a strong US dollar lures money away and commodity prices fall, but some governments promising tough economic reforms may stem the flow of capital leaving.

India and Indonesia look the most promising, fund managers say, following the election of pro-business governments on a ticket to introduce reforms that will open up state companies to foreign investment and cut red tape.

"Reformers are performers," said Bill Street, head of investments for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at State Street. "You need to differentiate your exposures in emerging markets … we have some select funds that pull out reformers. We've seen some good reform happening in India and Indonesia."

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In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government plans to sell state stakeholdings in major companies, shake up labour laws and cut populist subsidies on fuel.

Craig Botham, an emerging-markets economist at Schroders, said he expected success on those fronts "to lead to greater investment, picking up momentum going into 2016", but was only "cautiously positive" on similar claims by the government in Indonesia.

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So far, the two countries have had mixed success in retaining foreign portfolio capital.

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