The View | The Doomsday Clock ticks while the markets boom

You are James Bond. The Doomsday Clock is at three minutes – and it’s ticking. Your cutters hover over two wires. Then you see a third. What do you do?

The Doomsday Clock was set at seven minutes to midnight in 1947 by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists to reflect the looming spectre of nuclear war. It has been moved 21 times since then, and is reviewed annually. We are currently at three minutes to midnight - the closest since the Cold War days of 1984 when reactionary Yuri Andropov was Russian President and Ronald Reagan faced off.

Every channel of communications was closed. The US went ahead with a space-based, anti-missile defensive shield, possibly rendering Russia’s arsenal impotent. The two proxy-fought each other in Afghanistan and Pershing, and cruise missiles were deployed in Europe. Reagan intensified the arms race and unintentionally toppled Russia into bankruptcy in 1990. A year later, the clock was put back to 17 minutes before the hour.

Today’s three minutes may seem inconsistent with 1984’s bleak outlook but the scientists look at nuclear weapon potency and intent, rather than numbers. Modern technology allows multiple independently targeted warheads, pinpoint delivery accuracy, and the use of tactical as well as strategic nuclear weapons. The effect of an uncontained explosion in a city would render it inhabitable – perhaps forever.

The closest to nuclear midnight was two minutes, set in 1953, when the US first tested a hydrogen bomb that vapourised a Pacific island. Within nine months, the Soviets tested their own. The furthest from the hour was 17 minutes in 1991, just after the fall of the Soviet Empire and the end of the Cold War.

To get the scientists to move the clock back requires peaceful intent, such as when in 1988 Presidents Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev won the Nobel Peace Prize for signing the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. In 1972, Nixon and Brezhnev signed the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, and 126 nations signed the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963 to end atmospheric nuclear testing.

This year’s European terrorist attacks, the Syrian crisis, Brexit, the explosion of fake news, and Trump’s victory all make it more likely that the clock will be set to two minutes – but does it make sense to equal the most dangerous time since the second world war?