Speculation of Trump’s re-election is irrelevant. Here are five reasons why

Few stories are more irresistible than those that take on the conventional wisdom and come from an unexpected source. Doug Sosnik, a smart operative in Bill Clinton’s White House, provided both with a Washington Post column this month suggesting that Donald Trump is well-positioned for re-election.

The Trump base is solid, the Democratic strategist notes, as the president’s appeal to populist anger transcends his leadership failures. There will likely be independent candidates in 2020, so, like last year, Trump can win without a majority of votes.

Sosnik’s column has led to panicked calls from some Democrats and to provocative chatter on politics sites like FiveThirtyEight, while Trumpites, not surprisingly, welcomed his analysis.

It’s all interesting — and irrelevant. Informed speculation awaits answers to these five questions:

No. 1: Will there be an economic downturn in the next three years, ending an already 99-month expansion, the third longest in modern US history?

Some economists and investors anticipate years of good times, including a stronger-than-expected global economy. The US recovery from a deep downturn has been only modest, creating more leeway for a longer upturn, some potential benefits from regulatory changes, and the expectation of a corporate tax cut.