The US Federal Reserve will not need to see balanced risks to the economy to proceed with an interest rate hike in September, according to former Fed officials and a review of central bank statements through recent turns in policy.
In its latest statement, released Wednesday, the Fed said it continued to judge the risks to the US economy as "nearly balanced," meaning it still sees a greater threat of a new downturn than it does of accelerating inflation and excessive growth.
Wall Street closely watched the language as a possible tip-off to a September rate hike. Removal of the word "nearly" would have been seen as a sign that liftoff was almost certain, ending more than six years of near zero rates. But a review of Fed statements over the past 10 years indicates the risk language used by the Fed is a poor predictor of "regime change."
A major change in Fed policy in June 2004 was with language about risks that is similar to that of the current statement. Prior to its decision to begin raising rates at that meeting, the Fed had for several months judged the risks to the economy as "roughly equal." It kept that characterisation at the June meeting, and for nearly a year after that.
"Risks seem a little tilted to the downside. China, oil, Europe," said Cornerstone Macro economist Roberto Perli, a former Fed board staffer. But the current risk language "doesn’t represent a major constraint... Policy is so accommodative, to say risks are ’nearly balanced’ could justify a 25 basis point increase."