China’s real bad debt ratio at least nine times the official number and still growing
Bad debt clean-up more challenging than 1998 debt crisis, analysts say
Mainland China’s bad debts are at least nine times the official number and still growing as the economy slows down despite government stimulus measures, a seasoned market watcher has warned.
Analysts say solving the debt problem will be more challenging than the last debt crisis in 1998 because the mainland’s bad-asset management companies (AMCs) have become more market driven.
CLSA’s head of China and Hong Kong strategy, Francis Cheung, said on Friday that it estimated the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in the mainland banking sector was 15 per cent to 19 per cent, much higher than the official 1.6 per cent.
We do not have a clear idea of where the new credit goes – a lot it seems to be long-term corporate loans, suggesting credit flowing to infrastructure projects
“Banks will need to raise 6.8 to 10.6 trillion yuan (HK$8.11 trillion to HK$12.65 trillion), 10 to 15 per cent of GDP, to cover the bad loans assuming a 100 per cent provision rate, based on a 15 to 20 per cent NPL ratio,” he said.
The mainland’s debt to gross domestic product ratio would exceed 300 per cent by 2020, up from the current 200 per cent level, Cheung said.
The official NPL ratio is much lower as it reflects the implicit government guarantee of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and a continual rollover of bad debts. However, Cheung said, Western banking norms were stricter, with any loan more than 90 days past due categorised as bad.
Meanwhile, the government’s latest stimulus measures were proving less effective at kick-starting the economy and could even create new NPLs.
“We do not have a clear idea of where the new credit goes – a lot it seems to be long-term corporate loans, suggesting credit flowing to infrastructure projects,” he said. “I worry it is not going to the right place ... [and is] providing liquidity, rather than end-user demand.”