China Merchants warns Trump presidency ‘could lead to period of increased uncertainty for China’
But investment banking arm of giant state-owned conglomerate still thinks Clinton will win
A new report from China Merchants Securities, the investment banking arm of giant state-owned conglomerate China Merchants Group, has claimed a Donald Trump presidency could lead to a period of increased uncertainty for China.
But it adds that despite Trump’s at-times bombastic rhetoric towards Beijing, the concerns of many observers over the candidate’s volatility are overstated, insisting the US government’s normal checks and balances would mean that the existing strong interdependence between China and the US will remain a solid driving force behind bilateral ties.
China Merchants’ analysts, led by Lynn Song, conclude the possibility of Trump triumphing in November’s US presidential election cannot be dismissed, however, they still see a Hillary Clinton victory as more likely.
As in previous US elections, Song said the promises and declarations made on the campaign trail by both sides could also vanish once an elected president takes office, whether by personal choice, by political obstruction, or a shift in priorities.
But it’s a Trump presidency which takes up the lion’s share of its analysis.
“In the case of Donald Trump, the gap [between promises and actual policies] may prove to be even larger, as his declared goals on the campaign trail have been highly controversial,” said Song.
