US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (Tips) pay an annual coupon plus the cash equivalent of the rise in consumer prices. This one, which will mature in 2042, has seen a steep drop in its value since August, accelerating on Donald Trump’s win in November as markets felt he would issue more debt. From US$105 per US$100 nominal it hit a low at US$90 – despite the risk of higher inflation. A serious rethink has now taken place leading to a V-shaped interim base, a close above its neckline, and retracing half of previous losses. While still having to contend with the top of the cloud, further gains are very likely as their value becomes more apparent to many.

Nicole Elliott is a technical analyst