With crude prices fairly steady since Christmas and US petrol futures dreary for the past 12 months, we have managed to miss the boat in the US natural gas market. Having surged to the psychological US$4 per million British thermal units, reaching its first measured target and retracing half of the previous declines, the market suddenly turned bearish. After gapping down in the first week of this year, with moving averages crossing to negative, prices have slipped below the bottom of the cloud this month. All these point to a reversal of the intermediate trend. The market has now broken trend-line support and ducked below horizontal support at about US$3.05. We expect it to drop another notch to US$2.525.