Chart Book

Chart of the day: Shrinking spread in US Treasury bonds

PUBLISHED : Sunday, 25 June, 2017, 5:52pm
UPDATED : Sunday, 25 June, 2017, 10:25pm

For all the noise and hype about the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates now that the economy is purring along, bond vigilantes are not convinced. The yield on benchmark 30-year Treasury bonds is pretty much where it was at the height of the global financial crisis late in 2008 and their futures are priced where they were 18 months ago (when the Fed first tightened its policy). The spread between two- and 30-year US government debt is 138 basis points, where it was late in 2007 and which is one standard deviation below the mean regression since then. The monthly Ichimoku cloud chart suggests yields are on the way down again.

Nicole Elliott is a technical analyst