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Louise Moon

Deb Price

Good day traders --
Shanghai and Hong Kong closed ahead. All eyes were on Tencent in Hong Kong, where it slid 2.2 per cent.
Catch up on the day's action below. If you have any questions, please send them to deb.price@scmp.com .
-- Louise Moon and Deb Price in Hong Kong 
   
 


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Stocks

Stocks Blog: Shanghai, Hong post gains; Tencent tumbles 

Photo: Shutterstock

Tencent posts better-than-expected US$3.9 billion first-quarter profit as fintech services grow

Tencent Holdings offices at the Nanshan Hi-Tech Industrial Park in the southern Chinese coastal city of Shenzhen. Photo: Reuters

Tencent Holdings reported a 17 per cent year-on-year increase in net profit to 27.2 billion yuan (US$3.9 billion) in the first quarter. Photo: AP

Business

Markets

Economy

HSBC Qianhai eating up hotpot
Menacing 'fall armyworm' sends Chinese pesticide stocks soaring


Tencent drops 2.2 per cent, but HSBC Global Research gives its shares a big thumbs up


China stock market

Hong Kong stock exchange

China economy

Live

Here's what we are watching this morning:
Overnight markets/ What futures foretell
-- Overnight in US markets, S&P 500 gained 0.58 per cent,  Nasdaq rose 1.13 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.45 per cent.
-- Hong Kong futures are down 0.22 per cent at 28,000, while the China A50 futures are up 2.5 per cent to 13,040.83.
IPO debuts:
-- Sinofibers Technology (300777 CH)
-- Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group (600989 CH)
Economic statistics/Central Bank action:
9:30am: April new home prices in China 
Corporate events: earnings, meetings, news conferences:
CK Asset (1113 HK), CKH Holdings (0001 HK), Swire Pacific (0019 HK), Bank of China Hong Kong (0238 HK), Galaxy Entertainment (0027 HK) annual general meetings
Good reads: Tencent Holdings (700 HK) beat estimates to record a 17 per cent year-on-year increase in first-quarter net profit, helped by investment gains, Iris Deng and Celia Chen report. Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) projected that its annual revenue will surpass 500 billion yuan (US$72.7 billion) this financial year, reports Li Tao. 
 


Morning guidance 

Internet giant Tencent (700 HK) posted quarterly earnings that beat estimates, leaving many investors hopeful that last year's rout is behind it.
But the US-traded ADRs of the stock fell after it reported last night, and two leading brokers cut their price target this morning on the Hong Kong shares. 
Goldman Sachs cut its target price to HK$418 from HK$433, although it maintained its buy recommendation. Macquarie cut its target price for Tencent to HK$471 from HK$498, keeping its "outperform" recommendation.
Heading into its earnings call, Tencent closed Wednesday at HK$374. Of analysts tracked by Bloomberg covering Tencent, 53 call it a buy, six a hold and none a sell, with a consensus 12-month target price of HK$427.32, or up 14 percent.

-- Deb Price 
 


Tencent's target price cut by Goldman Sachs, Macquarie

Hong Kong opened down 0.42 per cent to 28,149.53, despite all three major US benchmarks rising overnight on signs Trump is working towards easing trade tensions.
On the mainland, the Shanghai Composite shed 0.17 per cent to 2,933.50 and the CSI 300 of large caps lost 0.18 per cent to 3,720.04.
-- Louise Moon 


Hang Seng, mainland markets open down 

Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi (1810 HK) was upgraded to a "buy" by Blue Lotus Capital Advisors, which gave it a price target of HK$13.50.
It closed at HK$10.48 Wednesday. Of analysts tracked by Bloomberg covering the stock, 22 call it a buy, eight a hold and two a sell, with a consensus target price of HK$13.66. 
Xiaomi has become a successful smartphone maker by selling units cheaply – its shipments have been ranked the fourth globally by IDC since the last quarter of 2017 – but it has also struggled to grow the more profitable segment of internet services.
In early morning trading, it is trading flat. 
-- Deb Price 


Xiaomi upgraded to 'buy' by Blue Lotus 

Chinese electric car maker BYD (1211 HK) slipped 0.7 per cent in a downbeat market, following ZheShang Securities initiating coverage with an "add" recommendation. 
Of analysts tracked by Bloomberg covering BYD, 17 call it a buy, four a hold and nine a sell. Its consensus price target for 12 months is HK$53.25, which would be a 10 per cent increase from Wednesday's close at HK$48.50.  
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holds a 25 per cent stake in the Chinese electric car company. On April 28, BYD reported a 632 per cent jump in its first-quarter net profit, boosted by strong demand for its new energy vehicles. 
The Shenzhen-based auto maker signed a deal with EVANT to produce an electric car for Australia beginning late next year, according to the Financial Review.
BYD also trades on the mainland (002594 CH).
-- Deb Price 


Chinese electric car maker BYD gets 'add' recommendation

Hot pot giant Haidilao (6862 HK) was rated a new buy at HSBC, with a price target of HK$34.28, or 22 per cent above its Wednesday's close.
That is considerably more favorable than the consensus among analysts covering the stock, which closed Wednesday at HK$28. Of analysts covering it, nine call it a buy, five a hold and one a sell, with a 12-month target price of HK$27.58.
Haidilao is up 0.5 per cent in early trading. 
The bank has also upgraded fast-food hot pot chain Xiabuxiabu (00520 HK) to “buy” with a price target of HK$15.27, or 28.5 per cent above its previous close of HK$11.88.
Of analysts covering it, 16 say buy, three hold and none sell, with a 12-month price target of HK$15.36. It shot up 3 per cent in early trading.
-- Deb Price and Louise Moon 


HSBC is hot on Chinese hot pot

Carbon fiber manufacturing company Sinofibers Technology (300777 CH) jumped 39.4 per cent to 8.45 yuan in its trading debut on the Shenzhen stock exchange. This is near the maximum 44 per cent rise allowed in the first day of trading.
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group (600989 CH) boomed 43.97 per cent to 16.01 yuan, making it just shy of the 44 per cent cap in gains on first day of trading.
-- Louise Moon 


Sinofibers Technology, Ningxia Baofeng soar in China debuts 

China’s three biggest airlines are on the up after reports they may join together to seek compensation from US aircraft manufacturer Boeing for disruptions caused by the grounding of its 737 Max.
In order of the state-run airlines' market cap size, largest player Air China (601111 CH)  gained 0.23 per cent, China Southern Airlines (600029 CH) rose 0.41 per cent, and China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH) rose 0.16 per cent.
In March, the Boeing 737 Max was grounded by airlines and regulators worldwide after two of the passenger airlines crashed within five months of each other.
-- Louise Moon


China's big airlines up after reports they will go after Boeing for disruptions over 737 Max 

Tencent (0700 HK) fell to its lowest level in six weeks, losing 0.53 per cent to HK$372.00.
The social media and gaming giant posted record quarterly profits after trading hours on Wednesday night, beating estimates, but revenue grew at its slowest ever rate due to heightened government regulation scrutiny over gaming operations.
-- Louise Moon 


Tencent falls to six-week low 

Huawei suppliers are falling after the US Department of Commerce announced a blacklist against the Chinese telecoms giant overnight, forbidding it to do business with American companies.
Earlier Trump had signed an executive order declaring a national emergency related to threats against information and communication technology and services.
Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH) had reached its lowest level since March 26, falling 4.2 per cent. Among others on the mainland, Shennan Circuits (002916 CH) was down 4.1 per cent, Shengyi Technology (600183 CH) lost 2.3 per cent, Shenzhen Sunway Communication (300136 CH) fell nearly 2 per cent and Accelink Technologies (002281 CH) shed 1.5 per cent.
In Hong Kong, Sunny Optical (2382 HK) slid 4.5 per cent to its lowest level since mid February, and AAC Technologies (2018 HK) fell 1.5 per cent
ZTE, China’s second-largest telecom equipment maker which could also be restricted from selling products in the US, fell 2.9 per cent in Shenzhen (000063 CH) and dropped 4.4 per cent in Hong Kong (0763 HK).
-- Louise Moon


Huawei suppliers tumble after Trump targets Chinese telecoms giant

Property developer Jiayuan International (2768 HK) rose 0.28 per cent to HK$3.54 after Moody’s places its rating on review for an upgrade.
Moody’s said the review reflects expectations that the company’s liquidity will improve due to issuance of USD notes in May and the proposed acquisition of assets from the group’s major shareholder, chairman Shum Tin Ching.
The ratings agency expects Jiayuan’s balance sheet as of December 2018 and its operating cash in 2019 to be able to repay its matured debt.
-- Louise Moon 


Jiayuan International gets boost on Moody's upgrade review 

China will continue to lead in the electric car sector, accounting for 48% of all passenger EVs sold in 2025 and 26% in 2040, according to the latest forecast from BloombergNEF.  
Electric vehicles, or EVs, are on track to dominate global sales of passenger cars and buses by 2040, it says.
Europe will pass the US as the world's second-largest electric vehicle market in the 2020s. But in non-China emerging markets, the shift to EVs will be much slower, "leading to a fragmented global auto market," it said.
Ride-hailing and car-sharing are increasingly important in the EV revolution. They account for less than 5% of all passenger miles travelled globally, but that will rise to 19% by 2040.
“Providers of shared mobility services will choose to go electric faster than private individuals," said Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, who leads BNEF’s coverage of shared mobility. "There are now over a billion users of shared mobility services such as ride-hailing globally. These services will continue to grow and gradually reduce demand for private vehicle ownership.”  
The main driver for the electrification trend over the next two decades will be continued declines in the cost of EV batteries. Electric cars will be cheaper than internal combustion engine ones by the mid-to-late 2020s in almost every market, the report says.
-- Deb Price 
 


China will continue to dominate electric cars, says BloombergNEF 

China’s property market seems stable as new home prices grew at a solid rate in April, according to new figures from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Average new home prices in China’s 70 large and medium-sized cities rose 0.6 per cent in April, in the same pace as March. This was a 10.7 per cent year-on-year increase, up from 10.6 per cent in March.
Sales prices of new homes in four first-tier cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen – rose 0.6 per cent compared to March, while those of second-hand residential houses rose by 0.4 per cent.
In tier two cities, gains were 0.8 per cent year-on-year, compared to a 0.6 per cent rise in March.
-- Louise Moon 


China new home prices rise in April 

S&P Global Ratings said the biggest Chinese companies it rates should be able to withstand the escalation of a trade war between the US and China in the near term, but prolonged uncertainty and lagging market confidence could make it harder for them to refinance debt if it persists, reports Chad Bray.
The rating agency said it estimates that only about 8 per cent of the companies that it assesses have direct exposure to the increased tariffs on exports to the US and most have sufficient buffers or alternative revenue options to offset the effects.
Nearly half of the companies S&P rates are state-owned enterprises and 22 per cent are in the property sector. The export sector has the highest exposure to trade tariffs, but many of those companies are foreign-owned or small private firms that S&P does not cover.
“An escalation in US trade tensions shouldn’t be an immediate hammer blow for China’s rated companies,” Cindy H. Huang, an S&P credit analyst in Hong Kong, said in a report.
Full story here. 
 


China’s biggest companies can weather trade war escalation, says S&P

Wanda Film Holdings (002739 CH) gained 1.15 per cent to 20.16 yuan in morning trading, following parent Wanda Group’s announced investment plans, while Wanda Hotel Development (169 HK) was flat at HK$0.73.
On Wednesday, the Chinese conglomerate released plans to spend 80 billion yuan (US$11.6 billion) in northeastern Shenyang city, in a move to focus on China following government scrutiny of the group’s overseas deals. The billions will be used to build a cultural tourism project, a hospital, an international school and five commercial complexes, according to a statement on Wanda’s website.
It takes the Group’s commitment to 147 billion yuan (US$21 billion) in just over a month, including 20 billion yuan in Chaozhou, Guangdong province, and 45 billion yuan in the impoverished north-central province of Gansu. It has promised to build huge cultural theme parks, hotels, shopping centres, hospitals and sports stadiums.
-- Louise Moon 


Wanda stocks mixed on planned mega project in Shenyang

Markets turned upwards by the end of morning trading.
The Hang Seng, which started slightly down, edged up 0.24 per cent to 28,336.91 by the midday break.
On the mainland, the Shanghai Composite inched up 0.28 per cent to 2,947.01, while the CSI 300 of large caps was up 0.19 per cent to 3,734.36.
-- Louise Moon 


Mainland, Hong Kong markets turn back up at lunch break 

Tencent Holdings (700 HK) continued to sink in afternoon trading, with UOB Kay Hian downgrading the Chinese Internet giant to hold from buy. 
The Singaporean brokerage firm's Julia Pan lowered its 12-month price target to HK$400 from HK$418.
Investors are taking a stern look at Tencent's report from Wednesday night. Tencent's first-quarter net income was better than expected. But its pace of sales growth -- 16 per cent -- was its slowest on record. 
"Missing consensus top-line estimates is not ideal, but the bright spot is growth came where it mattered -- in games, which is their most profitable segment," said Vey-sern Ling, an analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence. "The 11 per cent sequential jump in mobile game sales bodes well for the sustained recovery of the business over 2019."
Tencent is trading down 1.1 per cent, at HK$369.80.
-- Deb Price 
 


Tencent downgraded to hold at UOB

Roy Cho Kwai-chee, the alleged mastermind in Hong Kong’s largest financial investigation in decades, has been charged with conspiracy to defraud Convoy Global Holdings by the city’s securities regulator and anti-corruption investigator, reports Enoch Yiu. 
Cho allegedly conspired to defraud Convoy and its affiliates, causing more than HK$89 million (US$11.3 million) in losses to Hong Kong’s largest independent financial advisory firm. He will be brought to the Eastern Magistracy today, according to a notice by the Securities and Futures Commission and the Independent Commission Against Corruption.
The charge is the culmination of a joint investigation since December 2017 by the two regulators in a HK$715 million (US$91 million) legal battle surrounding Hong Kong’s biggest financial scandal in decades. The joint force’s first mission led to the arrest of four former executives of Convoy and its network companies, dubbed the Enigma Network by Hong Kong’s activist shareholder David Webb as a list of 50 stocks to avoid.
Read full story here. 


Hong Kong charges alleged mastermind for conspiracy to defraud Convoy

Macau casino giant Galaxy Entertainment (0027 HK) fell to its lowest since March 14, losing 1.25 per cent to HK$51.30 on poor first quarter earnings.
Net revenue was down 8 per cent both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, to HK$13 billion. It says it is exploring opportunities in overseas markets.
-- Louise Moon 


Galaxy Entertainment tumbles on poor first-quarter earnings

Pesticide stocks shot up today as the menacing "fall armyworm" continues spreading across southern China, harming crops.
Chinese pesticide maker Jiangsu Huifeng Bio Agriculture (002496 CH) hit the daily limit of 10 per cent gain, rising to 3.63 yuan. That was its biggest one-day jump since last month when it hit the 10 per cent limit five straight trading days between April 4 and April 11.
Other stocks gaining included grain and fertilizer seller Heilongjiang Agriculture (600598 CH), up 5.2 per cent to 11.26 yuan, and pesticide maker Jiangsu Changqing Agrochemical (002391 CH), which was up 5 per cent to 10 yuan.
On Tuesday, Beijing News reported that the National Agricultural Technology Extension Service Centre said it had found an infestation of the fall armyworm, whose larvae had caused damage to crops in 13 provinces as of May 10. In those provinces, 1.08 million mu, or 72,000 hectares, of land has been damaged.
The larvae are a major threat to corn currently in its seeding stage, according to the report. It could get worse as strong northbound winds carry in more insects from neighbouring Southeast Asian countries, the publication said.
The fall armyword was first found in China in January, and threatens China's corn, rice, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, cotton, soybean and peanuts.
There is a " high probability that the pest will spread across all of China’s grain production area within the next 12 months," according to a bulletin from the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service in Beijing.
Chinese authorities have implemented an emergency action plan to counter the infestation.

-- Deb Price, Louise Moon and Simone McCarthy


Menacing 'fall armyworm' sends Chinese pesticide stocks soaring

The Shanghai Composite closed up 0.58 per cent up at 2,955.71, and the CSI 300 rose 0.45 per cent to 3,743.96.
Both reached their highest levels this month, after US stocks rose overnight and investors are hopeful on supportive Chinese government policies being implemented to help the market.
-- Louise Moon 


Shanghai posts modest gains

UBS lowered the year-end target of China’s CI 300 Index of bigger companies by 3.6 per cent to 4,000 to reflect the intensifying trade tensions between the US and the Asian nation, Gao Ting, a strategist at the Swiss bank wrote in a research note today.
UBS also cut China’s economic growth for 2019 to 6.2 per cent from 6.4 per cent.
“The direct impact will be on the export industries that face higher tariff barriers, but there will likely be negative spill-overs across sectors and over time through a weakening income and business outlook,” Gao said. The index target, which is still 6.8 per cent above the gauge’s close today, is based on assumption that trade talks will continue and some deal will be eventually reached this year after this round of tariff increases. In the downside case, the CSI 300 will drop to as low as 3,100 by the year end, the report said.
The CSI 300 closed today up 0.45 per cent to 3,743.96.
-- Zhang Shidong 


UBS lowers year-end target of China CI 300 Index over trade tensions

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index eked out a gain of 0.02 per cent, to 28,275.07. Healthcare was the top mover, up over 4 per cent, led by Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK), which rose more than 5 per cent.
China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) was the top individual gainer, with a 5.1 per cent jump to HK$30.80.
-- Louise Moon 


Hang Seng ekes out teensy gain

It wasn't a good day for Tencent Holdings (700 HK), but it kept HSBC solidly in its fan club.
HSBC Global Research maintained its buy rating on the Chinese Internet giant, and increased its target price to $HK460 from HK$457. That would be a 26 per cent gain from its close at HK$365.60 today, after a 2.2 per cent daily fall. Overall, investors were unhappy by the slow pace of sales growth reported by Tencent Wednesday night. But HSBC heard plenty to like.
"We are particularly encouraged to see robust growth in Industrial Internet which is contributing more meaningfully (around one-third of total revenue), offsetting moderated growth in its core games and advertising," HSBC Global Research wrote in a note. "We see this quarter’s earnings beat as a clean beat as better earnings are largely driven by mix shift to higher margin social ads, less subsidies in payments, less drag from video content costs and lowered marketing spend. We are encouraged to see meaningful improvement in the profitability of FinTech and Business Services (i.e. Payment and Cloud) to 26% (from 15% in FY18 after adjusting for interest income of RMB8bn, to compare on a like-to-like basis)."
It expects games growth to accelerate while online ads likely will slow, due to macro weakness, intense competition and industry tightening on drama.  
"The company will prioritise user engagement and growth of Peacekeeper Elite over monetisation, and revenue recognition may take time on revenue deferral policy, but we still expect re-accelerating growth in smartphone games revenue in 2H, due to: 1) low base of 2H18; 2) launches returning to a normal pace; and 3) robust cash receipts (+10% yoy in 1Q19) to be recognised (driven by Perfect World Mobile). The successful introduction of Season Passes in China could potentially be a source of upside," it noted.
While Tencent is trading at a premium to peers, HSBC sees it as justified due to its earnings quality and visibility. 
"Downside risks include regulatory headwinds on games and macro slowdown affecting advertisers’ budgets," it said.
-- Deb Price 
 


Tencent quarterly earnings a 'clean beat,' says fan HSBC

China and mainland markets are moving up, but minimally as investors wait on good news from trade negotiations, said Gordon Tsui, managing director of Hantec Pacific.
“So far there is no more adverse information and it is a period of waiting for the good or bad news. We don’t know now, but the US’ attitude has changed a little bit to say negotiations are going well, and that may bring hope to the market,” said Tsui.
In the meantime expectations the mainland will introduce fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate the market is what has driven the two straight days of gains. If this is the case, financials and real estate, both of which have performed badly over the past week, will benefit, he said.
But activity will continue to remain low as the waiting game pans out. “Investors won’t do a lot as they have to observe what will happen in the coming few weeks, because trade negotiations are still processing.”
-- Louise Moon 


Crystal Ball: Trade deal will keep setting the pace of the market, says Gordon Tsui 

Investor confidence in China and Hong Kong remains low and cautious without a trade agreement, making investors reluctant to increase their shareholdings, according to Castor Pang Wai-sun, head of research for Core Pacific-Yamaichi.
Turnover is low and buy orders are not strong, he said, “which shows major institutional players in the market are trying to use the rebound in the indexes to offload their overall share holdings, particularly after the US-China trade relationship is appearing to deteriorate, making investors pessimistic and cautious.”
Confidence, however, is slightly on the rise after a rebound from the US overnight and hope that the two sides will come to an agreement at the G20 meeting next month.
-- Louise Moon 


Crystal Ball: Investors are 'pessimistic and cautious,' says Castor Pang Wai-sun

Chinese hotpot is the fastest growing cuisine in the country, and HSBC Qianhai says investors should be paying attention.
It has initiated a buy on Haidilao (6862 HK), the rapidly expanding hotpot chain that is HSBC's preferred stock in the sector. It also initiated coverage with a buy on Xiabuxiabu (520 HK). It initiated coverage with holds on Yihai International (1579 HK), the country's second-largest hotpot condiment manufacturer, and Fuling Zhacai (002507 CH), the largest processor of pickled foods in China.   
"We estimate that the top five hotpot chains have only about 7% of the hotpot restaurant market. This implies that there is plenty of room for the leaders to take more market share as they expand their chains, supported by a strong capital base, good supply chain management and the power of their brands," HSBC Qianhai said in its report on the popular hotpot market.
It put a target price of HK$34.28 on Haidilao.
"The brand has become synonymous with outstanding service and the company has an attractive employee incentive scheme and a bottom-up expansion model," it says. "...  Haidilao has built a strong supply chain covering nearly all its restaurant operating units. It also plans to keep expanding overseas. We expect revenue and net profit to both grow at a CAGR of 41% over 2019-21e." 
It sees Xiabuxiabu rising to HK$15.27. 
"It is gradually upgrading its chain to the casual style and moving away from its original fast-food image (about 60% of its restaurants updated to a 2.0 version, with a new look)," HSBC writes. "It has also launched a mid-market to high-end brand, Coucou, which has just started to contribute to operating profit. We expect revenue and net profit to grow at CAGRs of 23% and 21%, respectively, over 2019-21e. We are positive on the company’s expansion strategy and expect Coucou to be a new driver."
Its price target for Yihai is HK$39.10, with a hold because it feels the stock is fairly valued.
Fuling Zhacai is seen rising to 29.86 yuan. It has a hold on the stock because, with 42 per cent of market share in pickled foods, " We expect earnings growth to slow down given that the company has nearly half of the pickled product market in China."
-- Deb Price  
 


Stocks Blog: Shanghai, Hong post gains; Tencent tumbles

.css-1mniedq{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;}HSBC Qianhai eating up hotpot Menacing 'fall armyworm' sends Chinese pesticide stocks soaring

HSBC Qianhai eating up hotpot

Menacing 'fall armyworm' sends Chinese pesticide stocks soaring