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Georgina Lee

Deb Price

Welcome to Tuesday, traders --
Catch up on the day's news and moves in mainland and Hong Kong markets below. If you have any feedback or questions, please shoot them to deb.price@scmp.com. And if you would like to receive the blog each day via email, send a quick note to Deb. We're trying this out due to requests by a number of you.
-- Georgina Lee and Deb Price in Hong Kong


Chow Tai Fook-linked firms set for record US$192 million hit in Giordano case

Can Hong Kong’s 4.8 million MPF members repeat record gains in Year of the Horse?

Hong Kong stocks rise to wrap up best lunar-year performance in eight years

Korean investors pour US$92.5 million into Hong Kong-listed AI, tech stocks

Stocks

Stocks Blog: Hang Seng ekes out a gain, even as sentiment is weighed down by worst tourism drop since Sars

The Sogo shopping centre in Causeway Bay was eerily quiet at noontime on Monday, as protests have led to a sharp drop in the number of tourists. Photo: Linda Lew

The bull sculpture at Exchange Square in Hong Kong. Photo: David Wong

Business

Markets

Gold to hit US$2,000 an ounce? Citigroup says it could happen
Northbound traders on Stock Connect snapping up A shares


Tourism gloomy numbers hit Hong Kong jewellery and watch makers


China stock market

Hong Kong stock exchange

Hang Seng Index

Tencent Holdings

Hong Kong protests

MTR Corporation

Cathay Pacific

Citigroup

Live

Here's what we are watching this morning:
Overnight markets/ What futures foretell
--The S&P 500 slipped 0.01 per cent, the Nasdaq lost 0.19 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14 per cent.
-- Hong Kong futures are up 0.5 per cent; A50 futures are up 0.2 per cent
IPO debuts: None to note
Economic statistics/Central Bank action: 
China to release August CPI, PPI in morning
Good reads: A "shallow recession" likely in the US as economy slows, trade war weighs on global growth, CLSA says, as reported by Chad Bray. Wealthy Chinese are applying to move to the UK at the highest rate since 2014 as the trade war puts them off the US, reports Xie Yu.
 


Morning guidance 

Tencent (700 HK) bought back 110,000 shares for HK$37.6 million, it said in a filing overnight with the Hong Kong exchange. 
It paid between HK$340.80 and HK$343.40 per share.
It has been on a buyback spree since August 28.
Of analysts covering the stock and tracked by Bloomberg, 50 rate it a buy, seven a hold and none a sell. Their consensus 12-month target price is $HK416.45, or nearly 22 per cent above its Monday close.
 

-- Deb Price  
 


Tencent buys 110,000 more shares 

Solar power plant operator Kong Sun Holdings (295 HK) has a new chief financial officer -- Qin Hongfu.
In a filing to the stock exchange after trading hours, the company said Qin, 41, assumed the role on Monday of this week.
Immediately prior to joining Kong Sun, Qin was the chief financial officer of Beijing Hongzhi Huitong Industrial. 
From May 2011 to August 2016, Qin was also a non-executive director and member of the audit committee at Harbin Bank, listed at the main board of the HKEX. 
On Monday, Kong Sun closed about 11 per cent lower to HK$0.09 per share, considerably lower than 0.04 per cent drop in the bellwether Hang Seng index. 
-- Cheryl Arcibal 
 


Kong Sun Holdings names new CFO -- Qin Hongfu

A proposed new “insurance connect” scheme to allow cross-border sales of insurance products between Hong Kong and mainland China is on hold because of economic uncertainties arising from the trade war and the unprecedented social unrest that has rocked Hong Kong for the last three months.
“The talks about setting up an insurance connect scheme will definitely be delayed as a result of the challenges of international business operating environment as a result of the ongoing US-China trade war. It would be hard to launch a new connect scheme under the current economic situation,” said Insurance Authority chairman Moses Cheng Mo-chi on Monday.
Cheng revealed in June last year that the authority has been in talks with its mainland counterparts to establish a special channel for the marketing, sale and processing of insurance products, using a model pioneered in the stock connect schemes that now link the stock markets of Shanghai and Shenzhen with Hong Kong. A bond connect scheme was added in 2017.
Read full story here by Enoch Yiu.
 


'Insurance Connect' on hold due to protests, trade war

As Hong Kong’s unprecedented spate of civic unrest stretches into its 14th week, a slowdown in the world’s most expensive home market is showing varying effects across different districts, proving the adage that location is everything in real estate.
The prices of lived-in homes near the Olympic subway station in western Mong Kok district, a densely populated neighbourhood that was the scene of clashes between protesters and police, have declined the most since June, according to data by Ricacorp Properties, which tracks 50 major housing estates. Prices in the area dropped by between 8 and 10 per cent in August, with prices in the Central Park flats plummeting by 24.3 per cent between June and July, while Island Harbourview fell 11.9 per cent, the data showed.
“As long as the [protest] movement remains, there is a risk,” said Ricacorp’s research head Derek Chan, adding that buyers are feeling the “mental impact” of protest rallies. “Mong Kok and Prince Edward may be considered more dangerous. The districts that are more peaceful and which had seen less harassment by protests are naturally more popular among buyers.”
Read full story by Lam Ka-sing here. 
 


Lived-in homes in areas hit by protests see price declines

Hong Kong’s tourism industry has suffered the worst downturn in more than a decade, with street protests decimating August arrival numbers and driving visitors away from popular destinations such as Disneyland and Ocean Park.
Tourist arrivals fell nearly 40 per cent in August from the same time last year, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po posted on his blog on Sunday. That drop is the biggest year-on-year monthly decline since 2003 – during the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) outbreak – and a worrying trend after the 5 per cent drop recorded in July.
Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests, triggered by a controversial extradition bill, have dragged on into the 14th week and show no signs of easing.
Protesters forced the airport to close for two straight days, set fires in the streets across the city, and trashed dozens of railway stations.
The damage on tourism, one of the four pillars of Hong Kong’s economy, has sent shock waves through local industries from catering to hotels and retail.
Hotels are struggling to stay afloat – even with aggressive price cuts.
Occupancy rates across the city have plunged below 50 per cent, from over 90 per cent in the past, according to Yiu Si-wing, a legislator representing the tourism industry and the chairman of China Travel Service (HK).
Read full story here by Yujing Liu. 


Hong Kong tourism suffers worst downturn since Sars

Hang Seng index opened 0.2 per cent higher, at 26,737.5.
In China, the CSI 300, which tracks blue chips listed on Shenzhen and Shanghai bourses, was down, 0.5 per cent at 3,953.33. Trading in both markets was sluggish.
The Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.4 per cent at 3,013.96.
China imports of components for its manufacturing industry were down 5.6 per cent – the eighth fall in the past nine months – in a year which has so far seen overall Chinese imports fall by 4.6 per cent, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.
In the first eight months of this year, Chinese imports of manufactured products – including electronics, instruments and other devices – fell 8 per cent from a year earlier to US$581 billion. The weak data underlines softening demand at home and abroad due to impact of the US China trade war.
Liquor distiller giant Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) was down 0.6 per cent, at 1,130.02 yuan; Shandong Gold Mining (600547 CH) was down 2.6 per cent at 37.23; and Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) was down 0.6 per cent at 89.84 yuan.
In Hong Kong, China Unicom (762 HK) topped gainers of blue chips, up 2.6 per cent at HK$8.25.  Selective properties rose: Sino Land (83 HK) rose 2.2 per cent at HK$11.86; Link Reit (823 HK) rose 1.5 per cent at HK$90; New World Development (17 HK) gained 1.4 per cent at HK$10.26.

-- Georgina Lee 
 


 Hang Seng opens higher, China stocks down in sluggish early trading

China Unicom and China Telecom announced Monday that they will cooperate to build a nationwide 5G network, and the network will cover 15 cities across the country spanning Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Changsha, Nanjing and others.
“China Unicom views that the collaboration with China Telecom on building the 5G network, and the continuous sharing of 5G spectrum resources subsequently, will help lower the capital expenditure (capex) investment of 5G build out and operating costs....and a win-win solution for both companies”, China Unicom said in an announcement Monday night.

Bloomberg reported, citing a note from brokerage Jefferies’ analyst Edison Lee, that the deal could save combined capex of 370 billion yuan during 2019-2026.
The brokerage raised the price target of China Unicom to HK$23.86 from HK$20.38, and that of China Telecom to HK$7.65 from HK$4.33
In Shanghai, parent China United Network Communications (600050 CH) was up 5.2 per cent at 6.66 yuan. In Hong Kong, China Unicom (762 HK) was the top gainer in the H share index, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, jumping 5.6 per cent to HK$8.49.

China Telecom (728 HK) was up 3.9 per cent, at HK$3.73. China Mobile (941 HK) rose 1.5 per cent to HK$67.
-- Georgina Lee 


China United Telecom jumps on news of co-building 5G network with China Telecom

The Hang Seng Index is being dragged down by health care, consumer staples and utilities, while energy and information technology stocks are early session gainers.
China Unicom (762 HK) is a top gainer, jumping 4.1 per cent to HK$8.46, on news it and China Telecom (728 HK) will together build a nationwide 5G network. China Telecom is p 3 per cent at HK$3.70.
Geely Automobile Holdings (175 HK) was down 1 per cent to HK$13.28. It reported after market close Friday that its sales volume in August fell 19 per cent from a year ago, but had climbed 11 per cent from July. Of total sales in August, 7.8 per cent, or 7,897 units, were new energy and electrified vehicles.
The stock has been on a tear of late, as Beijing ordered local governments to help the struggling auto sector. Investors were upbeat about its August report, sending its shares up 5.17 per cent on Monday. It has risen four straight sessions.
Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) is a top percentage loser, falling 1 to HK$17.74. 

 
-- Deb Price 
 


Hang Seng weighed down by health care; Geely falls after four straight days of gains

The producer price index (PPI), reflecting the prices that factories charge wholesalers for their products, fell 0.8 per cent in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show.
This came after July, when the PPI fell into negative territory, at minus 0.3 per cent compared to a year ago, and down from the flat reading in June.
PPI deflation had already been hinted in other indicators showing a slowing industrial economy. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index – a gauge of sentiment among factory operators – slipped to 49.5 in August from 49.7 in July, with both input and output price sub-indices softening. A reading of below 50 indicates that activity in the sector is contracting.
China’s consumer price index rose 2.8 per cent in August, unchanged from the previous month’s rate and slightly higher than the 2.7 per cent analysts’ forecasts polled by Bloomberg.
Read full story here. 
-- Georgina Lee 


China’s producer prices push further into deflation as US trade war is drag on growth

We've been looking each day at some stocks that have been especially hard hit since violence has escalated in Hong Kong. 
Tourist arrivals in August were down 40 per cent from the same time last year. That is the biggest drop since 2003 -- during the Sars outbreak.  
In morning trading today, Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) is taking the biggest hit among these stocks. 
-- Deb Price
 


Chart: Of protest-hammered stocks in spotlight, Chow Tai Fook has biggest drop today

ANZ expects China pork prices will continue to rise, reaching 40 yuan per kilogramme before the Lunar New Year festive period in January 2020, twice the average price over the first half of 2019.
The rise in pork prices has been accelerating in recent months, registering a year-on-year surge of 46.7 per cent in August, compared to 27.0 per cent and 21.1 per cent in July and June, respectively, it said.
The spike in price was caused by pig livestock numbers having dropped by one-third this year up to July, compared to a year ago, due in part to the African swine fever, it said.
“(The drop) implies that there will be a shortfall of at least 18 million tonnes in the following months, in the aftermath of the African swine”, it said in a research note today.
Selective pig-related stocks rose, with Tecon Biology (002100 CH) up 7.9 per cent at 10.77 yuan; Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology (002157 CH) up 3.6 per cent at 18.21 yuan; Hunan Kakang International Food & Agriculture (002505 CH) up 5.2 per cent at 2.03 yuan.

-- Georgina Lee 


ANZ sees no stop to increase in pork prices, expects shortfall of at least 18 million tonnes

Grandshores Technology (1647 HK), whose businesses straddle both blockchain and industrial cannabis cultivation, said in an exchange filing Monday night that it has entered into an agreement with Libosoils to form a joint venture in the US to jointly develop industrial hemp.
Grandshores said it would have no less than 70 per cent stake in the proposed joint venture, which will have a processing plant for the extraction of cannabidiol (CBD) in the US state of Oregon, with annual production of not lower than 25 tons.
Producers of industrial hemp are looking to harvest CBD, an active compound used in medicinal and industrial hemp products.
CBD is not psychoactive, and according to the World Health Organisation, it can be used to treat epilepsy, although results are mixed. It also helps relieve pain, ease inflammation and is a source of antioxidants.
Shares of Grandshores Technology shot up 46 per cent, at 65 HK cents, during morning trading, as the second biggest gainer of the main board.
-- Georgina Lee 


Grandshores Tech shoots up on news of proposed US joint venture on industrial hemp

After the more than 900 points surge last Wednesday in the Hang Seng Index -- after city chief executive Carrie Lam announced formal withdrawal of the controversial extradition bill -- many futures traders who had short bets on the September Hang Seng Futures with a view of it falling racked up significant paper losses, market sources say.
The sudden surge of the Hang Seng index on September 4 unnerved a lot of short contracts futures holders, according to Alvin Cheung, associate director of Prudential Brokerage.
Based on the 134,644 open interests as of September 3, and taking into account the spot Hang Seng Index had shot up at one point by 1,100 points on September 4 intraday, that could result in as much as HK$7.4 billion paper losses in a worst case scenario, he said.
“That has caused a lot of these futures investors to change view on the index, leading them to close out their positions by switching to long September Hang Seng Futures,” said Cheung.
A long position on the index is a bet that the Hang Seng Index will have gone up at the contract’s settlement. On September 4, the Hang Seng closed at 26,523.23.
“That is why you could see that the Hang Seng Index has been trading range-bound this week and could potentially trend up to the 27,100 level, which is the 50-day moving average of HSI,” he said.

 
-- Georgina Lee 


Futures traders switch view to a higher Hang Seng for September

Investors continued to bet on a good harvest season for industrial hemp, after companies such as Renhe Pharmacy (000650 CH) announced earlier this month that they expect to complete harvesting the plant within this month.  
Such announcements triggered a wave of buying earlier last week.
Several related stocks surged to the daily 10 per cent up limit. These include Sanlux (002224 CH)  at 6.34 yuan; Kunming Longjin Pharmaceutical (002750 CH) at 14.71 yuan; Hunan Fangsheng Pharmaceutical (603998 CH) at 8.47 yuan, and Fuan Pharmaceutical  (300194 CH) at 6.09 yuan.
Meanwhile, Jilin Zixin Pharmaceutical Industrial (002118 CH) jumped 7.1 per cent to 6.98 yuan, and Haren Pharmaceutical (300110 CH) shot up 7 per cent to 4.74 yuan. Renhe Pharmacy (000650 CH) was up 2.6 per cent at 7.58 yuan.
-- Georgina Lee 


Industrial hemp-related stocks surge to 10 per cent daily limit in China

Air China (753HK) is down 2 per cent to HK$7.01, as Citi Research cut its target price for the stock to HK$8.6 while reiterating its "buy" rating, as reported by ET Net News Agency.
Air China has been in the spotlight due to its near 30 per cent stake in Hong Kong flag carrier Cathay Pacific (293 HK) and questions about whether it might want to take it over. 
Cathay has found itself in a difficult spot amid the Hong Kong protests. China's aviation regulator hit it with a safety warning after it initially backed its employees who wanted to support the protests. Cathay caved, firing some employees and warning others. The fallout also led to the resignation of its then-CEO Rupert Hogg, and other senior executives.    
But the SCMP reported on Monday that Stanley Hui Hon-chung, a member of the state-owned carrier’s board, says Air China does not want to take over Cathay, nor does it want to get involved in its day-to-day operations. 
“Based on what I know, I wouldn’t think that is anywhere on the agenda, no way,” Hui told the Post, when asked if Air China might seek to buy the Hong Kong carrier outright.
Of analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 19 call Air China a buy, six a hold and none a sell, with a consensus target price of HK$8.46. 
Cathay is trading up 0.6 per cent at HK$10.48 in the afternoon session.

 
-- Deb Price 
 


Air China trading down, after Citi cuts target price to HK$8.6 

China has granted export licences to 25 Brazilian meatpacking plants, Reuters reported, citing Brazil’s agriculture Ministry.
The total number comprise 17 for beef exports, six for chicken, one for pork and another one for donkey meat.
The report also said Brazilian pork exports to China had risen 48 per cent in the first eight months of the year, according to Brazil government statistics, while beef exports to China were up 17 per cent, and chicken exports rose soared 37 per cent.
The development comes amid a shortage of pork in China, with ANZ estimating a shortfall estimated of at least 18 million tonnes.
China's pork market -- the world's largest -- is being turned upside down by the African swine fever epidemic, which has caused a drop in the livestock and spike in pork prices.
WH Group (288 HK), the world’s largest pork producer, fell 0.4 per cent, at HK$6.84l; COFCO Meat (1610 HK) is down 2.8 per cent at HK$2.41; Huisheng International (1340 HK), which is involved in hog breeding and sales of pork products, is down 1.6 per cent at 12 HK cents.
Processed and frozen meat manufacturer China Yurun Good (1068 HK) was down 1.1 per cent at 93 HK cents. DaChan Food (Asia) (3999 HK), involved in feeds production and chicken meat processing, was up 1.2 per cent at 42 HK cents.
-- Georgina Lee


China to get more donkey and other meat from Brazil amid pig disease crisis

Northbound Shanghai Stock Connect trading has attracted net buying on all six trading days of September through Monday, totalling 20.7 billion yuan, according to the latest data available from the Hong Kong stock exchange. 
A similar pattern was seen for Shenzhen northbound trading. Only on September 3 was net outflow  recorded. Total net inflow for the remaining five trading days totalled 10.1 billion yuan.
Combined, the two Chinese exchanges saw net inflow from offshore investors buying A shares amounting to 30.8 billion yuan.
In January and February this year, northbound buying amounted to  60.7 billion yuan and 60.4 billion yuan of net inflows, respectively. Those marked the only two months that net inflows exceeded 60 billion yuan in the Stock Connect's history. Given we are early in week two of September, this month could be quite exceptional.
-- Georgina Lee 
 


Northbound traders on Stock Connect snapping up A shares

The jewelry and watch making sector was the top-loser industry in Hong Kong, with an average of 2.1 per cent drop among the 28 stocks tracked on both the main and GEM boards.
The drop followed news that August visitor numbers to the city were down nearly 40 per cent from a year ago, which amounted to the second biggest year-on-year decline since May 2003 when the deadly Sars epidemic pushed visitor numbers down by 70 per cent.
Watch product maker and distributor Hanvey Group (8219 HK) is biggest decliner in late afternoon trading, down 15.9 per cent to 5.3 HK cents. Asia Commercial Holdings (104 HK), a watch retailer and distributor, fell 6.1 per cent to 46 HK cents. Jewelry retailer Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) fell 2.3 per cent, and Oriental Watch (398 HK) is down 1.8 per cent at HK$1.67.
-- Georgina Lee


Tourism gloomy numbers hit Hong Kong jewelry and watch makers

The CSI 300, which tracks blue chips listed on Shenzhen and Shanghai bourses, closed down 0.3 per cent at 3959.27, while the Shanghai Composite Index finished down 0.1 per cent at 3,021.2.
Selective tech stocks and financials led the indexes lower. China National Software & Service (600536) fell down 8.5 per cent to 84.24 yuan, while Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH) was down 1.7 per cent at 15.1 yuan.
Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) fell 1.1 per cent to 89.44 yuan, China Merchants Bank (600036 CH) lost 1.4 per cent to 35 yuan, while Citic Securities (600030 CH) was down 0.5 per cent at 24.2 yuan.
Linus Yip, chief strategist at First Shanghai Securities, said despite the drop of the indexes, there has been a surge of both domestic and foreign capital buying of A shares recently.
For example, the two Chinese exchanges saw net inflow of 30.8 billion yuan from foreign investors buying A shares through the Stock Connect over the first six trading days of September.
“Given the latest round of reserve requirement ratio cut (RRR) by the Chinese central banks, and a general expectation for more accommodative stance by the central banks in Europe and the US, with the ECB and the Federal Reserve due to announce their decisions on their respective benchmark rates this and next week, respectively, I believe that the Shanghai Composite Index could still have room to go up to the 3,200- level,” said Yip.
-- Georgina Lee 
 


China shares slip

China is expected to continue to extend support to problematic banks, but authorities will be selective in their approach after pumping in billions of yuan to bail out three banks in the last four months, say analysts.
Nicholas Zhu, a credit analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, said that while the Chinese government has been quick to deal with episodes of bank stress, as regulators aim to alleviate market fear of contagion risk amid ongoing shadow banking and interbank activity, they are also determined to push forward their policy goal of maintaining financial stability.
“The authorities will become increasingly selective in providing support, especially where banks do not pose significant systemic risk”, Zhu said in a report issued on Monday, adding that government support will eventually be more “tiered”.In late May, authorities took over Baoshang Bank, followed by the rescue of Bank of Jinzhou by three state-owned financial institutions in July, and last month a sovereign wealth fund and Shandong government took part in HengFeng Bank’s debt restructuring.
Read full story by business reporter Xie Yu here. 
And here is a story for investors by stocks reporter Zhang Shidong on Chinese banks. 


China will be more selective in supporting distressed banks, say Moody’s and Fitch

Gold prices may rally to a record above US$2,000 an ounce in the next two years, according to Citigroup, which gave a laundry list of positive drivers including rising risks of a global recession and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates to zero.
“We expect spot gold prices to trade stronger for longer, possibly breaching US$2,000 an ounce and posting new cyclical highs at some point in the next year or two,” analysts including Aakash Doshi said in a note received on Tuesday. That would exceed the record of US$1,921.17 set in 2011.
Low or lower-for-longer nominal and real interest rates; global recession risks – exacerbated by US-China trade tensions; and heightened geopolitical rifts are “combining to buttress a bullish gold market environment”, the bank said. Also, “in affinity to our US rates research colleagues, we believe the Fed will ultimately end up cutting rates all the way to zero”, the analysts wrote.
Read full story here. 


Gold to hit US$2,000 an ounce? Citigroup thinks so

Protests continue to weigh on trading sentiment, with the Hang Seng eking out a teensy gain.
The Hang Seng closed at 26,683.68, higher by less than 0.1 per cent after another day of range-bound trading in which the index drifted in and out of gains and losses within a tight 236 point range.
“The Hang Seng has been rebuilding its performance steadily since last week. But trading has been cautious, given last Wednesday when the index suddenly rose by about 1,000 points, which has forced many short sellers in blue chips to quickly cover their positions that day,” said Linus Yip, chief strategist at First Shanghai Securities.
He was referring to the 996-point gain on September 4, after the SCMP reported Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam planned to announce she would formally withdraw the controversial extradition bill that triggered the ongoing protests.
“But given the solid A share performance, this should lend support to the Hang Seng Index, with many constituents being Chinese companies with China onshore operations,” said Yip.  
The lack of clarity on any resolution that could end the protest has kept traders from making aggressive bets either way.
Leading the index lower were heavyweights Ping An Insurance (2318 HK), down 1.6 per cent at HK$92.1, and Tencent (700 HK), which finished down 0.6 per cent at HK$340.20.
But telecom stocks kept the index afloat, with China Unicom (762 HK) up 5 per cent at HK$8.44. China Mobile (941 HK) rose 0.3 per cent at HK$66.2.
Outside the blue chip index, China Telecom (728 HK) rose 4.7 per cent to HK$3.76.
-- Georgina Lee
 


Protests weigh on Hang Seng, which ekes out teensy gain

Stocks Blog: Hang Seng ekes out a gain, even as sentiment is weighed down by worst tourism drop since Sars

.css-1mniedq{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;}Gold to hit US$2,000 an ounce? Citigroup says it could happen Northbound traders on Stock Connect snapping up A shares

Gold to hit US$2,000 an ounce? Citigroup says it could happen

Northbound traders on Stock Connect snapping up A shares