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How China’s hardline zero-Covid approach is wreaking havoc on its US$9.6 trillion stock market

  • The Politburo Standing Committee’s stance indicates that the zero-Covid policy take precedence over economic growth, Saxo Markets strategist Redmond Wong says
  • The Shanghai Composite Index has slumped 17 per cent this year, making it the worst performer in Asia

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With Chinese leaders showing no signs of easing lockdowns in their fight against Covid-19, stock market sentiment has taken a hit. Source: Bloomberg
Zhang Shidong
China’s adherence to a stringent zero-Covid policy has clouded the outlook of its US$9.6 trillion stock market, as pessimism grows that the virus-containment strategy will come at the cost of economic growth.

The Politburo Standing Committee, the Chinese leadership’s highest decision-making body, at a meeting on Thursday struck a surprisingly harsh tone to defend the Covid policy, pledging to fight any attempt to “distort, question and dismiss” the approach. The assertion officially put an end to the debate even among government officials on whether Beijing should ease its lockdown measures that have stoked anger among the public, suspended production at factories and paralysed the supply chain.

The hardline stance also marks a setback for stock investors who had bet that Beijing would relax the zero-Covid approach to strike a balance between stabilising growth and bringing the pandemic under control. China’s Shanghai Composite Index has slumped 17 per cent this year, making it the worst performer in Asia, as the lockdowns of Shanghai and the nation’s other 40 cities heighten jitters of a deepening slowdown.

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The gathering of the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee headed by President Xi Jinping resembled a “wartime mobilisation that called for unity, determination and sacrifice”, signalling that the zero-Covid policy takes precedence over economic growth, according to Redmond Wong, strategist at Saxo Markets.

A worker in a protective suit locks a barrier of a residential area amid the lockdown in Shanghai, on May 4, 2022. Photo: Reuters
A worker in a protective suit locks a barrier of a residential area amid the lockdown in Shanghai, on May 4, 2022. Photo: Reuters

“Relaxation of dynamic zero-Covid policy is now completely off the table,” he said. “This is going to have enormous negative impact on the economy and the financial markets. The much talked about economic, fiscal and monetary stimulus policy initiatives, even having been rolled out, will be just pushing on a string.”

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The lockdowns on the mainland have also sent stocks in Hong Kong and Taiwan plunging, as bets recede that Beijing will loosen regulatory curbs on Chinese tech juggernauts to bolster growth while logistics snarls upend operations at the likes of chip giants like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The correlations between the Shanghai Composite Index, the Hang Seng Index and the Taiex have now risen to the highest since at least September, according to Bloomberg data.
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