Funds bet on ‘cheapness’ history, Beijing policy spark to reverse US$140 billion rout in Chinese stocks

Valuations of MSCI China Index stocks have slipped back to level last seen in late 2018, from where the market rallied: Cambridge Associates

Cambridge Associates has peers Franklin Templeton and abrdn in the bullish camp

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People stand on the street beneath a large screen showing the latest market and economic data, in Shanghai on October 20. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 7:30am, 14 Nov 2023Updated: 9:49am, 14 Nov 2023

Market history suggests that oversold Chinese stocks are ripe for a turnaround and that Beijing’s key policy meeting next month could be a potential catalyst for better return, some global fund managers said.

The MSCI China Index, which tracks over 700 companies listed at home and abroad, has fallen 13 per cent this year to rank among the worst performers as foreign funds fled and favoured equities in India and Japan. This year’s US$140 billion sell-off in the index members followed a 23.6 per cent decline in 2022 and a 22.8 per cent drop in 2021.

“The valuations are some of the lowest you have seen,” Aaron Costello, regional head for Asia at Cambridge Associates, said in an interview. The Boston-based firm had US$276 billion of regulatory assets under management at the end of 2022. The negativity is already priced in and “something powerful, like a rally” could be building up, he added.

Stocks in the MSCI China Index trade at 11.7 times their forward 12-month earnings, the lowest since 2018, according to Bloomberg data. The last time valuations were this low, the CSI 300 Index tracking the largest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen jumped 40 per cent in the next four months, Costello said.

China’s stock market is about as bad as it gets, Cambridge Associates’ Costello says. ’When it snaps back, it could be a very fast move and quite powerful.’ Photo: Handout

Costello is counting on the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing next month to deliver the positive vibes, when China’s top leaders meet to set the nation’s economic and policy for the year ahead. China’s top leaders have lately turned more conciliatory to foreign investors in an attempt to overturn their pessimism.

Last month, China’s top political body agreed to raise the budget deficit ratio to 3.8 per cent of gross domestic product by approving an additional 1 trillion yuan (US$137 billion) bond issue to shore up the economy. Top-tier cities including Guangzhou also rolled out measures to boost housing demand amid a multi-year property slump.

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