After Switzerland's central bank pledged the "utmost determination" to defend its currency ceiling last month, only one currency forecaster began this year predicting the cap's demise.
When the Swiss National Bank removed its limit on the exchange rate yesterday, Jason Schenker, president of Austin, Texas-based Prestige Economics, was proved right.
Prestige was already the most accurate forecaster of the euro-franc currency pair in 2014 after Westpac Banking Corp, according to a compilation of rankings.
Its prediction that the franc would strengthen to 1.18 per euro this quarter was the only estimate among almost 50 analysts in a survey calling for an appreciation of the Swiss currency through the SNB's 1.20 Swiss francs-per-euro limit.
"Our forecasts have been predicated not necessarily on an exclusive lifting of the ceiling, but rather on the fact that the market direction for the euro and the Swiss franc would be basically unsustainable and indefensible," said Schenker, who produces all the predictions himself.
In the hours following the SNB's unexpected announcement yesterday, the franc appreciated as much as 41 per cent to touch 85.17 centimes against the 19-member currency, the strongest level on record.
The euro is likely to see further "significant" weakness if European Central Bank policymakers led by president Mario Draghi announce government-bond purchases, said Schenker.