The United States economy is recovering well and the housing sector, where subprime lending triggered the global financial crisis in 2008, is in rude health. Random-length lumber futures prices have rallied from their 2009 low. That is to be expected amid hopes for the next building boom. Futures prices peaked in 2013 at US$400 per 1,000 board feet, almost tripling in value, followed by big swings in triangle consolidation. Last month, however, they suffered a break down, closing below the triangle and a long-term trend line. A decline to the 50 per cent and maybe 61 per cent retracement support levels seems likely to follow. The break also hints that the construction industry itself might be sickly, a symptom of a declining rate of home ownership.
