For years, we have been promised that US interest rates will lead the way up to something more normal. This chart of benchmark US two-year Treasury note yields shows that since the taper tantrum in May 2013, they have rallied from the record-low 16 to 20 basis points to retrace 78.6 per cent of the slump in 2011. Four weeks ago, they stalled at January's high, forming a large and fairly dynamic double top similar to that of 2010-11. Rates look set to drop to trend-line support this month, where a weekly close below the line would hint at a move down to the 0.25 per cent area, which will be the new normal. Money market futures confirm with new record-high prices.
