Asian currencies under pressure amid interest rate cuts
Easing by Asian central banks to combat weak demand prompts sell-offs in won, NZ dollar
Asian currencies are facing increasing selling pressure as more central bankers in the region join the monetary easing wave to tackle weak exports.
The worst performers in the past week included the South Korea won and the New Zealand dollar, with traders rushing to sell the currencies after the two central banks cut their benchmark interest rates on Thursday.
The kiwi was hovering at a 52-week low of 1.4245 against the greenback on Friday, while the won slid 0.4 per cent this week to 1,114.63.
While the onshore yuan remains one of the better performing currencies in the region this year, onshore spot weakened by 46 basis points in the past week as traders expect the People's Bank of China to cut rates with deflation pressures rising. The mainland's consumer prices grew at a slower-than-expected 1.2 per cent in May.
Onshore yuan lost 0.07 per cent over the past week to trade around 6.2070 yesterday, while the offshore yuan added 4 basis points to trade at 6.2116.
"Our composite regional macro momentum indicator shows Asia at its weakest spot in years," said Deutsche Bank economists led by Taimur Baig.
"Debt burden has risen (especially in China), trade is contracting, and despite exceptionally abundant liquidity and historically low cost of financing, regional consumption and investment momentum is weak. Some economic weakness is understandable due to the sharp drop in commodity prices, but most Asian economies rely on electronics, autos, and manufacturing input type exports, and they too are facing chronically weak demand," it said.
Fresh easing measures are being adopted by central banks across the region to fight these slowdown pressures. South Korea's central bank on Thursday cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 1.5 per cent to support the economy, amid fears that the deadly virus Mers will hurt the country's exports and tourism income.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand also cut interest rates on Thursday to 3.25 per cent from 3.5 per cent and said another rate cut is in the pipeline, as the nation struggles with a stronger kiwi, falling diary prices and dry weather conditions.
In the coming week, New Zealand is set to announce its first-quarter economic figures. Weak figures may fuel speculation for another rate cut.
Also next week, Bank of Japan is due to announce its decision on whether it will increase asset purchases to boost the monetary base. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has, however, dampened expectations for further easing by saying the yen is already "very weak".
Morgan Stanley economists led by Helen Qiao expect Beijing to loosen exchange rate controls to internationalise its currency and facilitate more two-way flexibility in the exchange rate.
"In our base case… we would expect RMB to trade around the current level with higher volatility this year," it said.
