The broad trade-weighted dollar index has risen noticeably in the past few weeks and is now approaching the peak levels reached in March. Meanwhile, oil prices have hit new lows. All of this has sparked new questions about the United States Federal Reserve's ability to proceed with an interest rate rise in September. Given that the dollar is still within the recent ranges and a significant breakout to the upside is unlikely, Societe Generale believes it is too early to take September off the table. The dollar's recent gain has been driven by a repricing of lift-off expectations from the turn of the year to September. For the upward trend to continue, the Fed would have to signal two rate rises this year, which the bank believes is unlikely.
