Benchmark US two-year Treasury note yields peaked last week at 82 basis points with a shooting star reversal candle. This completes an A, B, C type corrective rally from a record low (0.15 per cent), started by then Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and his use of the word "tapering" in May 2013. Eighty basis points also happens to be the 50 per cent retracement resistance level taken from the 2009 high (1.45 per cent) and shows how hard it has been for yields to break above 75 basis points this year (a Fibonacci 78 per cent retracement from an interim high in early 2011 at 90 basis points). Expect yields to drop back to trend line support at 0.50 per cent by year end.