Hong Kong is heading for a ‘cataclysmic recession’ as city’s runaway debt service ratio imperils economy, research firm says
- Hong Kong’s debt service ratio among private non-financial companies is the highest among 32 countries on the BIS list
- The leverage is concentrated in the property and financial sectors, which account for more than a third of all loans in the city
Hong Kong’s economy may be headed for a “cataclysmic recession” because private-sector borrowers are being challenged by the city’s worst growth contraction on record from paying off their debt, according to an independent research firm.
Private sector debt by Hong Kong’s non-financial companies soared to a record HK$10.9 trillion (US$1.4 trillion) in the first quarter, the highest since record-keeping began in 1999, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bank of global monetary authorities.
The debt service ratio for the sector – a measure of cost to repay borrowings – rose to a record 29.8 per cent by the end of March, the highest among 32 economies tracked by the BIS. The ratio has almost doubled from about 16.5 per cent a decade earlier.
“Hong Kong’s private sector may perpetually leverage itself until debt service burdens reach some, as yet, unknown maximum level, eventually precipitating what would likely become a cataclysmic recession,” according to BCA Research in a note published on Monday.
The risk of a serious credit-driven downturn in the city has risen sharply over the past three years to reach the highest level since 2002 in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis and the burst of the dot-com bubble, according to the report.
The upsurge is driven almost entirely by the highest cost in history to service Hong Kong’s private sector debt, making the current episode of piling debt more threatening than previous ones, it added.
The Financial Secretary’s Private Office declined to comment. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is studying the BIS data and may comment on the debt situation, a spokesperson told the South China Morning Post.
Hong Kong’s private-sector debt is concentrated in property and financial institutions, totalling HK$2.7 trillion, or 38 per cent of all loans extended by approved financial institutions as of June, according to data by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA).
At 29.8 per cent, Hong Kong’s debt service ratio topped Norway’s 27.9 per cent, Netherlands’ 25.8 per cent, mainland China’s 20.3 per cent and the US at 15 per cent.
Hong Kong has the Federal Reserve to thank as a saviour, according to BCA Research, because the city imports its super-easy monetary policy under its pegged system.
The monetary authority will have to follow the US Federal Reserve’s bold plan to keep interest rates at a near-zero level at least for the coming three years, to support a fragile US economy ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic. This is likely to buy the city some time, as companies will take advantage of the low rates to refinance at cheaper costs.
But this could drive the city’s private firms into a perpetual cycle of increasing leverage because they will face less pressure to deleverage in the short term, BCA Research wrote.
“This suggests that while the cyclical outlook for Hong Kong is either benign or positive, a negative (and potentially horrific) structural outlook is warranted barring a preventive policy response,” it added.