Chart of the day: Spot the China disconnect

Which mainland data should you put more trust in, exports or industrial production? It is a tough call, given that all the proxies for factory output are trending down, while year-on-year export growth has risen steadily over the past 12 months and is comfortably back in double digits. Electricity production and rail freight show no pick-up, despite the export bounce. Carl Weinberg, a veteran China watcher and chief economist at High Frequency Economics, says investors should put their faith in the trade numbers. "Dating back to the very first days of economic data collection in China, the easiest thing to do was always to post someone at the border to count how many widgets and gadgets came into the country on each vessel and how many left. Customs records are the most reliable statistics for any economy," Weinberg writes in a note, adding the confident prediction that factory data will catch up with trade in the next release - due in about two weeks. Watch this space.