More than half of world’s wealthiest families expect a recession next year, survey by UBS and Camden Wealth shows

More than half of family offices globally expect a recession in 2020, according to a report by Swiss bank UBS and specialist business intelligence provider Campden Wealth. Of the 360 family offices – private wealth management companies of the world’s richest families – surveyed 56 per cent said they expected a downturn next year.

UBS said there were between 150 and 180 family offices in Hong Kong, of which 21 were surveyed, along with 20 in Singapore.

The bearish outlook stemmed from concerns about issues such as the US-China trade war and Brexit, and family offices were considering strategies to preserve wealth, as well as to capitalise on new business opportunities, the report said.

“Family offices are cautious about geopolitical tensions, and there is a widespread sense that we’re reaching the end of the current market cycle. While the average family office hasn’t made wholesale changes to its portfolio, many have been deleveraging their investments in anticipation of disruption ahead,” said Rebecca Gooch, director of research for Campden Wealth.

The report said that 23 per cent of family offices surveyed in Asia-Pacific had adopted a conservative, “preservationist” investment strategy, up from 7 per cent last year. Of the family offices in the region, 93 per cent said they believed the US-China trade war will have major economic implications in 2020, the highest proportion in all regions surveyed.

Globally, 84 per cent of family offices surveyed said they believed populism in the West, which has given rise to the presidency of Donald Trump, protectionist policies and Brexit, will not fade by 2020.