US making waves over China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent
Robert Karniol says China seems unlikely to have made a big leap inits nuclear deterrent capabilities at sea, despite what the US may think
Admiral Samuel Locklear, who heads the US Pacific Command, appears to have been somewhat disingenuous with a critical piece of his recent testimony before the Senate Committee on Armed Services.
"China's advance in submarine capabilities is significant," he said. Then, turning to a new ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and new strategic missile, the Type 094 Jin-class and the JL-2, he said that "this will give China its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent, probably before the end of 2014".
It's the last bit, which led to alarmist headlines, that seems premature. Deterrent patrols provide a second-strike capability intended to forcefully discourage a nuclear attack. They promise a crippling response, with submarines hidden in the depths far more effective than silo-based land systems.
Just four countries currently have this capability: France, Russia, the US and Britain.
China had a sole ballistic missile submarine in service from 1981 and a suitable missile from the following year, but the former was noisy and unreliable while the latter was of questionable quality and limited range. A single platform is in any case insufficient to provide a constant presence, and this submarine never conducted deterrent patrols.
The new Jin-class boat, operational since 2010, is intended to resolve these issues, with three of a projected five submarines already thought be in service - though without their missiles. The JL-2 offers improved design and greater range, but there remain several constraints.