Advertisement
Advertisement
At a time when the West appears to be fractured and weak, the emerging countries of the East, from a realist perspective, could not be better off.

Can Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi and Joko Widodo lead Asia to a new global order?

Steven Keithley says with reform-oriented leaders now in charge of the region's three biggest nations, Asia's time has truly come. Xi, Modi and Widodo can reshape the global order

Almost two months ago, on July 22, Joko Widodo became the president-elect of Indonesia. His victory came on the back of a platform to reinvigorate a hopelessly slow bureaucracy, root out corruption and boost a lacklustre economy. Déjà vu, anyone?

By electing the former Jakarta governor to the nation's top office, Indonesians not only sent a strong message about what they want for the future of their country, but they also completed a cycle that began in late 2012 with the appointment of Xi Jinping as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, then continued with the electoral victory in May this year of Narenda Modi in India.

By the time Widodo officially moves into Merdeka Palace next month, Asia's three largest nations will all be led by reform-oriented leaders determined to retune their nations for the better.

The significance of this concurrence cannot be overstated. At a time when the West appears to be fractured and weak, from a realist perspective, the emerging countries of the East could not be better off. If anything, the "Pacific Century" finally begins now.

Both Xi and Modi have already demonstrated that their rhetoric was more than just empty promises. Both men have made and are making substantial changes to their countries that could have international implications.

Xi, similar to Widodo, inherited an economy that has fallen back down to earth after years of spectacular growth. His response has been to reduce state involvement in the allocation of key inputs like capital, energy and land, and implement a dramatic restructuring of state-owned enterprises (including the introduction of a significantly higher degree of competition). In other words, the most radical economic reforms since Deng Xiaoping .

And that isn't all. Xi's pursuit of economic efficiency has led to an anti-corruption crusade featuring some of the highest-profile purges in recent history, including that of Zhou Yongkang , who only two years ago was one of the most powerful men in China, and six months ago probably thought he was untouchable by virtue of the respect typically given to men of his stature. Not in Xi's mind.

Meanwhile, across the Himalayas, Modi, who does not benefit from the same degree of uncontested power as Xi, has begun reforms that could, in the Indian context, be considered just as revolutionary. In a nation frequently characterised by terms like "sluggish" and "bloated", Modi's work raising the limits on foreign direct investment, providing a bank account for every household, and beginning the process of replacing the Soviet-inspired Planning Commission with a think tank containing at least two prominent free market economists, is groundbreaking. Work undoubtedly remains to be done, and criticism will continue, but Modi is making headway.

Although Widodo has yet to take the helm, most analysts and experts expect him to make good on his campaign promises.

Of course, how he navigates Indonesia's complex parliamentary system must be taken into account. But those in positions of power seem to believe that Widodo will be the reformer they voted for.

Markets in Jakarta have already begun to reflect this, with considerable gains since July, and major companies like Foxconn and Samsung have started plans for dramatic new investments in the country.

These marks of progress draw a very stark contrast to the West. Compared to Xi, Modi and Widodo, the leaders of the Western world almost seem inept.

In foreign policy, they could not put together a coherent and effective response to the annexation of Crimea and the Ukrainian civil war, and today are struggling to respond to the rapidly expanding terrorist threat posed by Islamic State.

In domestic affairs, what can only be characterised as a blood feud between US President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans has brought American action on most major issues to a standstill, a scenario only exacerbated by persistent economic stagnation and unemployment in the country.

Across the Atlantic, UK Prime Minister David Cameron is atop an increasingly unpopular Tory-Liberal government that continues to face numerous signs of economic weakness, including record lows for sterling and dramatic falls in productivity. Additionally, if current polling trends continue regarding the Scottish independence referendum, Cameron could preside over the break-up of the United Kingdom.

Clearly, neither the US nor Britain are in a position of strength. And they are far from the only Western countries in such a predicament.

This all means that the most powerful Asian nations in the emerging world have a golden opportunity to improve their relative standing on the global stage and are in a better position than ever in recent history to shape the events and circumstances of the future.

This is their time to shine, and invert an international calculus that some have said is weighed against them.

When Widodo is inaugurated in Jakarta next month, and jubilant crowds take to the streets to celebrate what they hope is a new dawn for Indonesia, international observers should also realise that October 20 could potentially mark a new age in international affairs.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Rise and shine
Post