It is vital to understand that Putin’s nuclear threat is a cry for respect
- Unlike the West’s undeclared war on Russia, China’s friendship can help to bring about peace in Ukraine and moderate Moscow’s revanchism
Some commentators have claimed Russia under Vladimir Putin is becoming Beijing’s vassal state or a client state. That is doubtful.
The disastrous Ukraine invasion may have turned Moscow towards the East, especially China and India, for their markets to absorb its oil and gas sanctioned by the West.
But while China is an economic superpower and has the influence to prevent Russia’s total isolation, Putin has thousands of nuclear warheads. As measured by its sheer potential for military destructiveness, Russia is still the predominant nuclear superpower, after the United States.
It is rather difficult to make a vassal out of someone nuclear-armed to the teeth. Beijing has a tough time controlling North Korea, which has only a few dozen warheads.
03:15
Ukraine calls for emergency UN meeting as Putin says Russia will deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus
We have often forgotten the danger of nuclear war after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union; it’s time we refresh our memory.
President Xi Jinping barely left Moscow when Putin threatened to move nukes into allied Belarus. He has not done so.
But given the high-profile statements from Xi since the last Asean summit in November against nuclear deployment, that is not how you give face to a superior.
Ahead of the Bali summit last year, Russian diplomats walked back on Putin’s tough talk about deploying nukes. How different has the Russian response been this time?
The latest nuclear threat is all the more alarming as Moscow announced last month it was unilaterally withdrawing from the New START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control pact it had with the US.
03:41
Xi and Putin deepen China-Russia partnership in Moscow talks, but no Ukraine peace deal details
Was it a tit-for-tat? Despite the show of public support, Xi has not handed Putin what he wanted most.
Before their meeting, the Russian leader was boasting about inking the Power of Siberia 2 (POS2), a massive pipeline project to pump gas from western Siberia to China via Mongolia. But Xi would not commit.
The Russians are desperate; the Chinese are in no hurry and are biding their time to get the most advantageous deal. Putin was not happy, even somewhat humiliated when the Kremlin had to acknowledge negotiations were ongoing.
Certainly, the Belarus-nuclear threat is aimed at the West: Ukraine is not worth a nuclear war, so don’t try to break up Russia or achieve a regime change. But it also sends a message to Xi – you may get a better business deal but don’t try to lord over Russia.
As Russia rattles nuclear sabre again, is there a path to global security?
Some Western analysts, who undoubtedly want to see a wedge driven between Moscow and Beijing, have suggested Putin’s exposure in Ukraine has meant ceding Russian influence in Central Asia to the Chinese, who also want to recover parts of Siberia – through which POS2 runs – that were lost to Tsarist Russia under the Treaties of Aigun and Peking in 1858-60. One writer even equates those territories to the Chinese claims on Taiwan and Hong Kong.
That is ridiculously far-fetched.
Such commentaries betray their authors’ intention to see conflicts between the two countries being driven closer together by Washington’s new cold war.
Nevertheless, there is something to be learned here. Don’t humiliate Russia now that it is down like the US did arrogantly over the decades following the Soviet collapse.
Ukraine’s Zelensky predicts Putin moves, invites China’s Xi
The ongoing tragedy in Ukraine is greatly the outcome of the US treatment of Russia by showing no regard to the latter’s border security concerns, which were repeatedly voiced by Putin, who was then completely ignored. This doesn’t excuse the illegal invasion, but the West led by Washington is hardly blameless.
By being friends with Russia and showing it proper respect, Beijing is not only making a self-interested strategic partnership. It will serve not only as a potential peacemaker over Ukraine but in the longer term, exercise a stabilising influence on a volatile and unpredictable Russia.
China understands national humiliation as well as any country. It may look deep into its own historical experience to treat Russia well and, contrary to the Western attempt to isolate it, help to moderate its revanchism.
