Japan right to rethink nuclear phase-out

The growing tension between China and Japan over islands in the East China Sea has given the administration of Yoshihiko Noda an opportunity to gradually modify a plan to phase out the Japanese nuclear sector by 2040.

This month, the Japanese government announced its phase-out decision, following through on an idea inherited from Noda's predecessor, Naoto Kan. However, last week, a cabinet resolution undermined that objective by saying that the government would "take into consideration" the 2040 goal in deciding Japan's economic future in the post-Fukushima era.

Thus, as the Japanese people and the rest of the world have been preoccupied with worsening Sino-Japanese relations, Tokyo has practically abandoned the unrealistic 2040 goal imposed on it by the pressure of public opinion in a panicky reaction to the Fukushima accident.

Instead, the government now says Japan's energy policy will be developed "with flexibility, based on tireless verification and re-examination", an encrypted way of declaring the unfeasibility of the phase-out goal, which is reflected in July's restarting of the No 3 and No 4 reactors at Japan's Oi nuclear power plant.

The goal was unachievable as it was based on two unrealistic assumptions.

One was tripling the energy produced by renewables to eventually compensate for the loss of nuclear energy. Prior to Fukushima, Japanese nuclear power plants generated about 27 per cent of the nation's electricity. This goal is unrealistic as, unlike nuclear energy, renewables (hydro, solar, wind, geothermal, biofuels and waste) are unsuitable to generating large-scale electricity due to their technological limits and high costs. Before the Fukushima disaster, they accounted for about 10 per cent of Japan's energy mix.

The other assumption was that the loss of nuclear energy could be compensated for by increasing imports of oil, gas and coal. Prior to Fukushima, fossil energy accounted for about 63 per cent of Japan's energy mix. But today, fossil fuels are being used to generate 90 per cent of Japan's electricity. Given that these are almost all imported, the increase has created a heavy financial burden for the economy and pushed up prices.