The true extent of China's energy crisis
Shujie Yao and Dan Luo say nation must rely on coal for now, which is bad news for the environment
When it comes to the sheer volume of investment in clean energy, China has no peers. Barely a month passes without the media reporting the latest government pledge to develop non-fossil-fuel sources or another ambitious renewable energy target. While commendable, these promises risk masking the true extent of China's future energy crisis - and its gloomy implications for global carbon emissions.
If China maintains close to its current gross domestic product growth rate, its energy demand will reach 5 billion tonnes of coal equivalent by 2020, far beyond previous estimates of 3.6 billion tonnes. That means, by 2020, China will need to consume 3 billion tonnes of coal and 640 million tonnes of oil each year. China's current annual oil production is steady at 200 million tonnes per year - an indication of the gulf that exists between supply and demand.
A dependence on oil imports will have huge implications for its foreign policy; diplomacy across the Middle East, Africa, Central Asia and Latin America will continue to be governed by its appetite for crude.
Amid growing urgency, the National Energy Administration has published its goal for renewable energy to supply 9.5 per cent of the country's total energy needs by the end of 2015. The government also wants to increase the share of non-fossil-fuel energy to 15 per cent of its total energy consumption by 2020 and 30 per cent by 2050. These are ambitious targets; a combination of insufficient infrastructure, immature technology and current pricing mechanisms are likely to render them unattainable.
The distribution of hydropower and wind resources in China is unbalanced. Large hydropower projects have been criticised for their damage to biodiversity, water quality and cultural heritage. And due to the intermittent nature of wind power, grid companies are reluctant to spend money to link up more wind farms.
Last month, the Chinese government ordered its electricity distributors to source up to 15 per cent of their power from renewable energy, including wind power. The target is again unrealistic. Current tariffs set by the government are too low to warrant investment by struggling wind power developers in the additional networks required to transmit electricity from the north and west to densely populated urban areas in the south and east.
China's solar industry has also faltered. Overcapacity has prompted a sharp fall in the price of solar panels and US anti-dumping duties, coupled with the euro-zone crisis, have cut overseas demand.