Except for the influx of refugees in neighbouring states, Syria's 18-month civil uprising has until very recently been contained within its own borders. That changed with the shelling of a Turkish border town that left five civilians dead during a battle for control of a frontier where Syrian rebels have sought safe haven. Turkey retaliated by firing on Syrian military targets, while its parliament sanctioned operations inside Syria by its armed forces. The stated aim is to safeguard national security and discourage provocation. A war does not have popular support in Turkey. But these events are a dangerous escalation of a conflict with potential to spark wider conflict in a volatile region. This is reflected in a unanimous statement by the UN Security Council, including Syria's main arms supplier, Russia, demanding an end to violations of international law and highlighting the grave threat of the crisis to regional peace and stability.
The council's response is unlikely to deter President Bashar al-Assad from continuing to use armed force against resistance to his family's rule, which began as peaceful opposition. Russia and China have vetoed UN intervention on the grounds of non-interference in the affairs of a member nation. Without a new diplomatic initiative, the conflict could slide down the world agenda. The US, already wary of costly Middle East wars, is now preoccupied with a presidential election. So long as Russia continues to arm Assad for its own political and strategic purposes, China's call for negotiations on a political settlement is unlikely to be heeded.
The human cost mounts, with 30,000 dead, 1.5 million displaced within Syria and 300,000 refugees in Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon - a number the UN expects to more than double soon, exacerbating regional tension. Frustrated with the failure of the West to come to their aid, the rebels are flirting with support from foreign jihadis. Syria's internal affairs are therefore becoming other people's legitimate business.
The West is wary of repeating the controversial Libyan exercise of declaring no-fly zones to protect civilians. But Arab capitals have joined a growing consensus that Assad cannot be allowed to destabilise the region. If international envoy Lakhdar Brahimi is unable to break the impasse and Russia will not rein in Assad, Western and Arab governments will be under pressure to devise effective measures to halt a man-made catastrophe that shames the world.
