Why an Obama win would benefit the world

Most people around the world will not be able to vote in the US presidential election, even though they have a great deal at stake in the result. Overwhelmingly, non-US citizens favour Barack Obama's re-election over a victory for his challenger, Mitt Romney. There are good reasons for this.

In terms of the economy, the effects of Romney's policies in creating a more unequal and divided society would not be directly felt abroad. But, in the past, for better and for worse, others have often followed America's example. Many governments quickly subscribed to Ronald Reagan's mantra of deregulated markets - policies that eventually brought about the worst global recession since the 1930s. Other countries that followed America's lead have experienced growing inequality - more money at the top, more poverty at the bottom, and a weaker middle class.

Romney's proposed contractionary policies - the attempt to reduce deficits prematurely, while the US economy is still frail - will almost surely weaken America's already anaemic growth, and, if the euro crisis worsens, it could bring on another recession. At that point, with US demand shrinking, the rest of the world would indeed feel the economic effects of a Romney presidency quite directly.

That raises the question of globalisation, which entails concerted action on many fronts by the international community. But what is required with regard to trade, finance, climate change and a host of other areas is not being done. Many people attribute these failures partly to an absence of American leadership. But, while Romney may summon bravado and strong rhetoric, other world leaders would be unlikely to follow him, owing to the belief (correct in my judgment) that he would take the US - and them - in the wrong direction.

American "exceptionalism" may sell well at home, but it does poorly abroad. President George W.Bush's Iraq war - arguably a violation of international law - showed that although America spends almost as much on defence as the rest of the world combined, it could not pacify a country with less than 10 per cent of its population and less than 1 per cent of its gross domestic product.

Moreover, it turned out that US-style capitalism was neither efficient nor stable. With most Americans' incomes stagnating for a decade and a half, it was clear that the US economic model was not delivering for most citizens, whatever official GDP data said. Indeed, the model blew up even before Bush left office. Together with the abuses of human rights under his administration, the recession - the predictable consequence of his economic policies - did as much to weaken America's soft power as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan did to weaken the credibility of its military power.

In terms of values - namely, the values of Romney and his running mate, Paul Ryan - things are not much better. For example, every other advanced country recognises the right to accessible health care, and Obama's Affordable Care Act represents a significant step towards that goal. But Romney has criticised this effort, and has offered nothing in its place.