Military the weakest link in US 'pivot' to Asia
Trefor Moss says Washington's 'pivot' to Asia is more about diplomacy and trade than military dominance, given that the US is struggling to maintain its current presence and defence cuts threaten its new ambitions
Worried about the rise of China? Anxious about the disappearance of the world you know? Fear not. Uncle Sam has a plan. The "pivot" to Asia - the United States' historic shift in emphasis from the Atlantic to the Pacific - has been in motion for a year now.
The US' goal is to stress-proof the Asia-Pacific region, to enable it to bend but not break under the strain of rapid geopolitical change. This can be done, the Obama administration reckons, by revamping America's regional presence (military and otherwise) and sending out a strong signal that America will remain the Pacific's pre-eminent power. The economic and security benefits of the rebalancing would then be felt both in the US and Asia.
While the pivot is a cross-government plan with many dimensions, its military element has received the most attention. This is unfortunate because the military aspect is the pivot's weak point. It's also dangerous, because the US risks deceiving its allies and deluding itself about what the pivot in its military guise can realistically achieve.
Faced with the rise of China as a military power, many Asian countries have enthusiastically endorsed Washington's plans, favouring the US system they know over the Chinese system they don't. Australia, the Philippines and Singapore are among those keen to help Washington deliver what Leon Panetta, the US defence secretary, has couched as "enhanced presence, power projection and deterrence in the Asia-Pacific".
It all sounds very reassuring. But the strategy itself isn't the problem. The crux is whether the US retains the dynamism and material resources needed to deliver the enhanced Asia-Pacific security that its Asian friends are hoping for. What they will find, to their great disappointment, is a worrying disconnect between the US' growing military ambitions in Asia and its diminishing power to realise them.
Militarily, the US is doing what it can: marines are being deployed to Australia, and several small navy ships will be based in Singapore. But these are modest changes - not the large-scale deployments that would alter Asia's strategic landscape.
Right now, they are all America can afford. After a free-wheeling decade of wars and blank cheques, the US military is entering a cycle of bruising cutbacks, not global expansion. Around US$500 billion has already been sliced from the Pentagon's budget over the next decade as the federal government faces up to its debts. Under the axe are 70,000 troops, hundreds of aircraft and more than a dozen naval ships. The US navy, whose expansion was to have enabled the pivot, is set to shrink as ship-building programmes are stretched to save money.
