North Korea may yet push China to finally act on nuclear threat
Shim Jae-hoon says Beijing’s reluctance to use its leverage is being tested
Repeating the past, North Korea's young ruler Kim Jong-un has threatened the US and South Korea with dire consequences for opposition to the nation's missile adventurism. In a break from the past, Kim issued thinly disguised criticism of North Korea's principal benefactors - China and Russia. The latest turn in North Korea's brinkmanship will test China's newly installed party general secretary Xi Jinping .
In strident responses to the UN Security Council's resolution this month stiffening sanctions over the December rocket launch, the North claims it is ending talks over denuclearisation efforts; it will also conduct a new underground nuclear test of a "high level" device, predicted to target the United States.
The threat against the US, the first since Kim's inauguration, followed signs of a thaw. Before the recent crisis, Kim had seemed to offer an olive branch to South Korea. Some analysts speculated that he might be ready for dialogue with President-elect Park Geun-hye.
His volte-face in threatening South Korea for supporting the US has thus raised speculation. Few can fathom the mood in Pyongyang and a regime operating in opacity: Is an omnipotent military group pressuring Kim? Is he panicking at the prospect of tighter UN sanctions?
With the North Korean military system deeply involved in weapons trade, especially nuclear and missile technology with Iran, it's possible such factors are at play. The North's statement indicates Kim is stung by China and Russia's support for the resolution, although China agreed to back the US draft only on condition that no new sanctions are imposed.
But such protest has its limits: state-of-the-art weaponry comes from Moscow, and the North is critically dependent on China which supplies half its food and energy.
Beijing has leverage over the Pyongyang regime. Why, then, bite the hand that feeds? Perhaps because Kim is acutely aware of the geopolitical value of North Korea as a buffer state next to US ally South Korea. Kim's latest show of defiance may also be his reaction to China's recent courting of South Korea amid growing tensions with Japan over the Diaoyu-Senkaku territorial disputes.