Green energy can power Myanmar's growth
David Fullbrook says underdeveloped nation's lack of infrastructure could be an advantage
As Myanmar approaches the suffocating days of April and May, factories face a slowdown and consumers face failing fans or air conditioners. The problem is a shortage of electricity, because hydropower dams, which account for two-thirds of supply, will run out of water.
However, this won't affect three-quarters of Myanmar's 60 million people - because they have no reliable access to electricity anyway. They either live beyond the limited electricity grid or are too poor to pay the 500,000 kyat (HK$4,400) connection fee.
But prospects for relief are brightening. The government is planning 6,000 megawatts of generating capacity, mostly hydropower, over the next decade. International agencies are showing interest. The World Bank, for instance, is considering a loan for a 120-MW power plant.
Acting is problematic though, for several reasons. One, electricity competes with other industries for engineers and technicians. Two, weak legal and financial frameworks increase risk premiums. Three, expanding hydropower builds in risk of seasonal shortfalls, climate vulnerability, and the socio-economic costs of damaging ecosystems that underpin food and fibre. Four, existing plans may fall short if demand races ahead.
It stretches credulity, therefore, to expect the centralised power model - even if fast-to-build gas replaced hydro - to reach the 40 million people living in the countryside within a few decades.
Myanmar's underdevelop-ment could be an advantage, however.