Arab spring was just first step of a long road to democracy
Mely Caballero-Anthony says as Arab spring shows, democratic transition requires patience
A recent cover of The Economist magazine asked: "Has the Arab spring failed?" More questions along this line will come as the international community follows closely the political developments in the Arab world. Already, many analysts and pundits are wondering how the celebrated Arab spring of 2011 that led to the breathtaking end of dictatorial regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen could have gone awry.
The rapid descent into political strife in these states has rocked the once placid region, with unimaginable violence recently breaking out in Egypt. Many now question the wisdom of the democratic transformations taking place there. As Egypt's regime struggles to keep order, how do we make sense of these unfolding events? And what does this mean for Southeast Asia's own story of transition?
Since the mid-1970s, Southeast Asia has had its own chequered experience of political transition. From the Philippines' arduous journey to democracy in the early 1980s to Myanmar's breathtaking democratic reforms after decades under a military junta, the common thread is that transitions are inherently fragile, and need to be properly nurtured until democratic processes are consolidated.
Political "transitologists" like Andreas Schedler and Guillermo O'Donnell, writing about the Latin American experience, have shown that while dozens of Third World countries went "democratic" between 1980 and 2000, only a few were able to consolidate that status. Most either slid back into autocratic modes of governance or got stuck in "halfway" status.
Similar studies have shown that democratic consolidation depends on an array of factors. Pressures to allow citizens greater political participation are one part of the equation. Also significant are a gamut of domestic factors, including the level of economic development and quality of leadership.
Beyond elections, there is the difficult task of getting the new players to work together and achieve a consensus that democracy is the only game in town. Also imperative is building a strong economy. More importantly, there must be the realisation that transitions require time and forbearance in the midst of urgent demands to meet people's expectations.