World will benefit from America's welcome of China's rise
Frank Lavin says an understanding of its challenges points to the need for greater US engagement
China's rapid emergence as a major economic and political force is the most significant development of our era, and viewed against the backdrop of sustained underperformance in the US, Europe and Japan, the consequences of its rise are even more pronounced.
China spent 30 years, from 1949 to 1979, as perhaps the world's worst-performing economy, and the subsequent 30-plus years as perhaps the best-performing economy. Today we see a successful, consequential and serious China.
This success is not to suggest it is without challenges. Up to two-thirds of its citizens still live in modest rural circumstances with limited access to education, employment or health care. It faces other challenges, from environmental degradation to corruption and all of the problems of single-party rule.
These challenges raise questions about the sustainability of the Chinese model. Can growth stay on track? Will social and political stability be maintained?
I believe it will sustain high growth for some time: first, it can take advantage of its developing-nation attributes, driving improvements in output through marginal improvements in labour productivity. Second, the leadership is fixed on the need to keep growth on track.
On sociopolitical issues, we can understand why there is speculation about stability. Questions long settled in other countries are still fresh in China, such as what are the government's obligations to its citizens, what rights do citizens have and under what circumstances should citizens be able to change or even criticise their government? These questions still need to be addressed. However, in the near term, China is able to maintain social stability through high growth rates and the gradual liberalisation of personal space. It also has an effective security apparatus.
Discussion about stability and economic reform conflated this summer with articles in the West about "Document No 9", a party directive that abjures Western constitutional democracy, "universal values" of human rights and Western media norms, among other elements that most in the West would probably support as important attributes of a successful society.