No Asian Century without global amity
Andrew Leung says the East, led by a rising China, must pick an effective balance-of-power strategy
In a recent article, US diplomat Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, elucidates how a so-called "Asian Century" could face two very different futures. One is of robust levels of growth while managing to avoid military conflicts. The other is ominous, with increased tensions translating into rising military budgets and confrontations affecting trade, tourism, investment and economic growth.
Haass wonders whether Asia could replicate the period of global stability and prosperity in the second half of the 20th century. This saw the birth of the European Union, ushering in regional integration following political reconciliation after the second world war.
By contrast, in Asia today, we see rising nationalism and sharpening territorial disputes.
As a Pacific power, Haass writes, the US should promote confidence-building regional pacts for free trade and address global issues like climate change. A regional forum should also be established to regulate the deployment of military force and reduce the risk of potentially incendiary incidents.
This analysis has to be put in the following context.
First, the second half of the 20th century was a historic unipolar moment. The fallen British empire, the collapse of the former USSR, and US predominance in world trade, finance and military projection ensured an era of Pax Americana.