Opinion | Expect progress, but it won't happen overnight

Tomorrow, a secretive four-day meeting of nearly 400 top mainland officials is scheduled to end in Beijing with a communiqué that will set the tone and agenda for China's development over the next decade or more.

Expectations are mixed. On the one hand, great hopes are rising, fanned by the state media and senior officials in the past few weeks, that the third plenum of the Communist Party's 18th Central Committee will endorse a road map of revolutionary and exciting changes that will transform the country into one that is more open, more equitable, more liberal and based on the rule of law.

In short, people who take this line are expecting a silver bullet strategy to overcome the country's most pressing problems: rampant corruption, a widening income gap, rising social discontent, pollution and excessive state control that stifle innovation and job creation.

On the other hand, cynics and jaded analysts are sceptical that the new leadership under President Xi Jinping can overcome the resistance from powerful vested interests and strong ideological wrangling within the party to achieve a strong enough consensus on which political reforms are necessary.

They believe that the much talked-about key reforms to break up state sector monopolies, abolish the hukou household registration, and change land ownership laws will hardly be revolutionary, but, when announced after the plenum, will be watered down versions to bring only gradual changes.

Both views are valid but lopsided. Great optimism about the outcome of the plenum has stemmed from state media reports and senior officials including Yu Zhengsheng , the fourth-ranked member of the Politburo Standing Committee, promising "unprecedented" reforms.