Hong Kong needs a clearer view of population growth model
Andrew Sheng says broad vision in ongoing consultation must lead to political decisions
Hong Kong is currently consulting the public on its population policy. The steering committee proposes that the policy should "develop and nurture a population that will continuously support and drive Hong Kong's socio-economic development as … a socially inclusive and cohesive society that allows individuals to realise their potential, with a view to attaining quality life for all residents and families".
That is a very noble objective, but the real tough questions are what "number" do we want and how do we define "quality"?
It all depends on the context and the relative position of Hong Kong to its neighbours and competitors as a world city.
The facts are illuminating. The city's population has grown very slowly and is ageing fast. With a population of over 7 million, of which there are 312,000 foreign domestic helpers (8 per cent of the labour force) and an unemployment rate of just over 3 per cent, the labour force will begin to peak in 2018 and steadily decline as the population ages. By 2041, one in three will be over the age of 65.
The labour force will begin to peak in 2018 and steadily decline as the population ages. By 2041, one in three will be over the age of 65
The reason is because the fertility rate is among the lowest for an advanced economy.