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Shared concerns mask China's unease over Russia's action in Ukraine

Raffaello Pantucci says both are wary of protests that lead to revolution

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

Various Russian media outlets have loudly and repeatedly declared that China supports Moscow's view on Ukraine. Recently, in an interview on Russian state television, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov characterised China as "our very close partners" with whom he has no doubts.

On the face of it, this interpretation is accurate, but the reality is far more complex, with China uneasy about Russia's actions though it may share Moscow's concerns.

For all the bombast in its Pacific seawaters, China remains largely a status-quo power that sees advantage in letting the current global order proceed along its natural trajectory.

For policymakers in Beijing, this is a path that ends with China atop a constellation of new and old power centres from the UN Security Council to the G20 and BRICS.

China can see its economic might and physical size is an overwhelming one that current global trends favour. The question is how to manage this rise in a smooth manner so as to ensure the Communist Party can maintain supremacy in this complicated world.

Russia's actions in Ukraine do little to smooth this path. In fact, they cause chaos and instability in a number of key Chinese markets, from Russia to Europe, as well as stirring up concerns in adjacent Central Asia.

The former Soviet states worry about Russia's long-term intent and implications to them of sanctions, while European markets are in turmoil as they try to figure out how to disentangle themselves from their Russian interests.

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