China is the world's second-largest economy, but, ironically, food security is now emerging as one of the main concerns for its communist leaders. During a visit to an Argentinian farm in July, President Xi Jinping said: "If China is going to grow, it must solve its grain problem for its 1.3 billion population first." Measures taken by China to address the problem - going to the world - may not be a panacea. As China grows wealthier, food consumption and diet have undergone a dramatic transformation. Between 1980 and 2005, meat consumption quadrupled, reaching 59.5kg per person a year, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation. Meat consumption is likely to continue to increase in the coming years as more Chinese join the ranks of the expanding middle class. Chinese are also developing a voracious appetite for certain delicacies taken for granted in the West such as coffee, spices, vegetables such as asparagus and exotic fruits like avocados and blueberries. China is home to 22 per cent of the world's population, but possesses around 7 per cent of its arable land. However, in recent years, this arable land has been shrinking as a result of serious environmental damage such as soil erosion, deforestation and pollution of rivers and lakes. Last month, officials reported that more than 40 per cent of China's arable land is suffering from degradation. The combination of increasing food demand and reduced arable land will make it difficult for China to feed itself in the not-so-distant future. In the past decade, China has experienced hikes in food prices and shortages of certain products. China has no choice but to turn to overseas farming. In 2013, it imported 4 per cent of the world's grain and this is likely to rise. In recent years, Chinese investment in overseas agriculture and land leases has steadily increased. Chinese companies began investing in neighbouring Laos and Cambodia farmland in the early 2000s and slowly ventured further afield. Chinese-owned or jointly owned farms are now in several African countries, including Mozambique and Ethiopia. In Mozambique, a Hubei-based company has invested US$250 million in a rice farm in Gaza province. In November last year, a director at the country's ministry of agriculture was reported to have said that several Chinese conglomerates were expected to invest up to US$2.5 billion in its agricultural sector. In Angola, Chinese state-owned giant Citic pledged to invest US$5 billion in agriculture in addition to its current lease of 20,000 hectares of land. Mozambique and Angola in particular are large countries with immense tracts of fertile land and a small population. China's ongoing tensions with its Southeast Asian neighbours make other parts of the world even more attractive, and Africa could emerge as a major provider of agricultural products. Chinese business interests have also leased tracts of land in Brazil, Peru, Argentina and Mexico. China is also reported to be acquiring land in the sparsely populated Russian Far East. Its most ambitious investment is a land lease deal with Ukraine for 3 million hectares to produce grain and raise pigs. In 2010, Chinese companies were reported to have requested the lease of 1 million hectares from the Kazakh government to plant soya beans and wheat. However, the overseas option carries risks as well as promises of reward. As shown by recent events in Ukraine, once a relatively stable part of the world, nothing is guaranteed. Land is a sensitive issue that touches on our most primordial fears. In Kazakhstan, there is widespread concern that China is grabbing the country's vast and sparsely populated land by bribing local officials. In Brazil, several officials, including a former minister of agriculture, have accused China of carrying out a stealth land grab. In Mozambique, a Chinese land lease in the Limpopo valley is reported to have displaced 80,000 people, while in Cameroon, tribal chiefs and local NGOs have protested against land acquisitions by Chinese companies. In some areas, there have been allegations of physical assault against African farm labourers by their Chinese managers. China is not alone in its interest in African farmland. Brazil, Japan, South Korea and several Gulf States have leased large tracts of land in the continent. Brazil seems to have been far more successful than China, at least in Mozambique, having acquired large tracts of land in the north. Brazilian land deals have been far less controversial than Chinese ones and elicited less suspicion. Brazilian companies are reported to be producing soya beans in Mozambique and, for several years, Brazil has been the main supplier of this product to China. It seems that the Brazilians have stolen a march on the Chinese. Despite these risks, Chinese investment in overseas agriculture is likely to continue; it has little choice but to do so to sustain its growing food needs. However, one must be cautious not to see Chinese acquisitions of overseas farms as a mere land grab. The issue is far more complex. China has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in agriculture research centres throughout Africa that have greatly increase rice and other crop production and alleviated food shortages. Hundreds of Chinese agriculture scientists are working in Africa, and elsewhere, to improve efficiency. While Africa and other parts of the world are supplying China with products such as grain, soya beans and meat, China may also contribute to consolidating food security in Africa and other regions with its investment and expertise. China's long-term strategy may be to boost Africa's capability to produce agricultural surplus, both addressing the continent's chronic food shortages and China's demand for imported food. Chinese investment in overseas agriculture can bring significant benefits, provided such investments are done in an open and transparent way and with respect for local communities. Indeed, certain countries - particularly Angola and Zimbabwe, to mention a couple - are keen on such investments. China and the host countries for such investments can benefit tremendously - if both sides have the imagination to build mutually beneficial partnerships. Loro Horta is a senior diplomat based in Beijing. The views expressed here are strictly his own. Copyright: The Whitney and Betty MacMillan Centre for International and Area Studies at Yale