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Brexit
OpinionComment

Backers of Brexit should consider its devastating consequences on global peace and security

Michael Stürmer says Britain’s exit from the EU would shake the very foundations of the global security order – and peace – and any relief Britons may feel is likely to be short-lived

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British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne (left) and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble speak at the British Chambers of Commerce conference in London. The EU would be ”less stable” if Britain voted to leave, Schaeuble told British business leaders. Photo: AFP
Michael Stürmer

No country in Europe has a greater interest than Germany in keeping Britain in the European Union. Industrialists, bankers, politicians, commentators: whatever sets them apart in the real world, they all see “Brexit” as a mistake of historic proportions.

READ MORE: ‘Brexit’ will weaken Britain’s military and intelligence capabilities, analysts say

You can imagine the champagne corks popping in the Kremlin if the great British public offers President Vladimir Putin European disunity on a silver platter

In a time out of joint, as Shakespeare’s Prince of Denmark observed, Europe risks becoming unhinged. Stand-offish as never before in the last half century, Britain can make or break the EU. The beautiful maiden from Greek mythology is not in good shape. Her reputation leaves a lot to be desired. At the least, high-class cosmetic surgery is required. Long before things get better, they can get worse.

You can imagine the champagne corks popping in the Kremlin if the great British public offers President Vladimir Putin European disunity on a silver platter. The most obvious challenge to Europe’s peace and well-being stems from Putin’s annexation of Crimea and its aftermath. Russia is conducting a proxy war against Ukraine, using not-so-subtle threats against Russia’s Baltic neighbourhood: non-aligned Sweden and Finland, and Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, uneasy members of Nato.

READ MORE: Upcoming Brexit vote is a potential black swan and the last thing jittery markets need

Stand-offish as never before in the last half century, Britain can make or break the European Union. Photo: Reuters
Stand-offish as never before in the last half century, Britain can make or break the European Union. Photo: Reuters
For most of post-war history, the US has been the balancing force from across the ocean. Britain has been strongly supportive in Nato and in global crisis management. Europe, for all its weaknesses, has been a force multiplier. All that is now at risk. As a seasoned US diplomat has stated, the chances of war by accident or by design are now as great as they have been for 50 years. This is not the time for schoolboy games.
A cupcake with an anti-EU message is provided for delegates attending the UK Independence Party spring conference in northern Wales. Photo: AFP
A cupcake with an anti-EU message is provided for delegates attending the UK Independence Party spring conference in northern Wales. Photo: AFP
The changes to help Britain that were agreed in Brussels are by no means earth-shattering. Both sides got a face-saving bargain. “Ever closer union” no longer applies to Britain – but even chancellor Helmut Kohl, as he once told me, knew the phrase was not worth pursuing to its extreme, since it could tear the European Community apart.

The jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice over the British Parliament remains a sticking point. Absence from the euro area and the Schengen agreement underlines the country’s semi-detachment. Yet if the UK were to leave altogether, that could jeopardise many achievements Britain and other countries take for granted. Little Englanders would have a moment of Schadenfreude, but triumph would be short-lived. A protracted economic, political and financial Ash Wednesday would follow.

No one in Nato or the EU wishes to destroy what has served us well. Yet the West, as we have known the Atlantic system for seven decades, could disintegrate. An edifice would shatter that has provided half a century of peace and prosperity to western Europe, extended since 1989 to the eastern part of the continent. Old demons would rise from shallow graves. The refugee crisis provides a foretaste of future trouble.

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