Jake's View | Brexit is a nice scapegoat for a sagging economy, that’s all
But don’t let that get in the way of an easy excuse for maladministration
Asian economies may slow down sharply and currencies may be pushed broadly lower as the Brexit contagion hits Asia, with Hong Kong likely to fall into a recession and the yuan to decline further, according to analysts.
Business, June 29
Let’s deal with the Hong Kong bit first. Here we quoted analysts from Nomura (a has-been Japanese name), who said we are exposed to Brexit because exports to the European Union were the equivalent of 14 per cent of our gross domestic product in 2015, the highest figure in Asia.
It’s true. As the chart shows, the figure was much higher ten years ago but it clocks in at about 14 per cent at the moment. And, yes, this is very likely the highest figure in Asia at the moment. I could confirm it but it’s summer and I’m lazy and I don’t relish the prospect of several hours of spreadsheet work.
The point, however, is that this is the figure for total exports, which is about 98.8 per cent composed of re-exports. These consist of pass-through trade to and from the mainland to which we do nothing but adjust the stated price as part of the money laundering service we offer mainland industrialists.
