In the South China Sea, Beijing is a big fish in a small pond

The risk of confrontation between China and the maritime states of Southeast Asia has increased significantly following the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling that China’s expansive claim to the waters of the South China Sea enclosed by its “nine-dash line” had no legal basis under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and China could not claim historical rights to resources within the enclosed area. It criticised China for denying Philippine fishermen access to shared fishing grounds and aggravating the dispute by engaging in extensive land reclamation and the building of artificial islands.

The arbitral tribunal noted that the entitlement of islands to a territorial sea and exclusive economic zone has to be based on natural conditions, not the result of augmentation through land reclamation. It concluded that none of the features in the Spratlys are islands capable of sustaining human or economic life on their own, including the Taiwanese-occupied Itu Aba, the largest natural land mass in the Spratlys.

US should be willing to help Philippines defend disputed reef in South China Sea, says former commander of American forces in Pacific

In a striking indictment of Chinese actions, the tribunal observed that China had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights within the Philippine exclusive economic zone by interfering with Philippine fishing and petroleum exploration, constructing artificial islands and failing to prevent Chinese fishermen from fishing within the zone.

China rejects the jurisdiction of the UN tribunal. Ahead of the announcement, Chinese policymakers engaged in a diplomatic offensive, warning that any decision undermining Chinese sovereignty “will increase tension and undermine peace in the region”. The Chinese government has since rejected the ruling, calling it “null and void”.

Although China has supported calls for an early conclusion to its negotiations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on a code of conduct in the South China Sea, in practice China has stalled negotiations by insisting on concurrent progress on implementation of the 2012 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, as well as proposing many related projects as a distraction. Just as the declaration took 10 years to negotiate, China’s tactics will stretch the code of conduct negotiations.

In the meantime, through its assertive actions, China is changing the facts on the ground. There is a growing Chinese naval and coastguard presence in the South China Sea. China has also engaged in large-scale land reclamation, including the building of runways, wharves, a weather observation station and four-storey building on Subi Reef, as well as similar developments on Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratlys and Woody Island in the Paracels. Recent years have witnessed sharp exchanges between China and the two most vocal Southeast Asian claimant states, the Philippines and Vietnam.