Can Xi keep geopolitics off the table at the G20?

This weekend in Hangzhou (杭州), in advance of the G20 annual forum, Xi Jinping (習近平) and Barack Obama will have their ninth face-to-face meeting. (One final exchange seems likely to occur in November at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation annual meeting in Lima, Peru.)

The political calendars of the two presidents have diverged in important ways. Xi is deeply involved in leadership selection ahead of next autumn’s 19th party congress, whereas Obama’s much more compressed agenda, in his final 4½ months in power, is to ensure Hillary Clinton’s election as his successor.

Both presidents have significant expectations in Hangzhou, though Xi’s are arguably greater. He is very deeply invested in the outcomes at the G20. He plans to present an ambitious set of initiatives that will elevate China’s international stature, designed both to stimulate growth in the global economy and to put forward what various official spokesmen describe as new rules for global economic governance. These initiatives, the result of elaborate planning for months in the run-up to Hangzhou, have a “made in China” quality. As host and organiser of the forum, Xi has ample latitude in agenda-setting, and China’s economic resources (even as its economic growth has slowed appreciably) provide Beijing with ample comparative advantage, assuming that it can be employed skillfully.

World Bank backs China’s push to challenge US dollar dominance by selling SDR bonds ahead of G20 summit

Xi seeks a positive response to his initiatives in reforming the international economic architecture, but he also hopes to keep geopolitics off the table in Hangzhou. It is doubtful that he can succeed, at least not fully. This has been a time of major setbacks and unforced errors in Chinese foreign policy. China’s forceful articulation and pursuit of its national security objectives – in the South China Sea, the East China Sea and in relation to South Korea – have alienated nearly all neighbouring states. As a consequence, the United States and its military are increasingly welcome around the region, with particular attention to the maritime domain.