Duterte’s foul-mouthed rants mask the real issues, and reflect poorly on his nation
Philip Bowring says the Philippine president’s tough talk on the US and newfound pivot to China are likely to be short-lived, given his personal failings, and the fact that US ties are too deep to be upended by slights real or imagined
If President Xi Jinping ( 習近平 ) thinks he has a fine new friend in Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, one can only respond: You are welcome to him.
Let us not conjure up excuses for the barbarism of his so-called war on drugs. Imagine instead how people here and across the border would feel if two bodies a day started turning up on the streets of Shenzhen, or 25 a day throughout Guangdong, summarily shot either by police or self-appointed social guardians.
This would take us back to the Cultural Revolution, killing fields devised by a megalomaniac leader and individuals using the campaign as cover for disposing of personal foes.
That Duterte should react with foul-mouthed abuse of US President Barack Obama and UN chief Ban Ki-moon, for criticising his bloodletting, or the Pope for causing a traffic jam, merely demonstrated what an unstable personality he is, unable to engage in rational discussion or have his personal whims and demons thwarted. His comparison of himself to Hitler and willingness to slaughter drug users by the millions says all too much about him – though he is too erratic to write and stick to a Mein Kampf.
That the Philippine drug situation is probably no worse than other countries in Southeast Asia (Singapore excepted) and Hong Kong itself is mostly missed, as gross exaggerations are used to justify 3,000 or so murders. Actual data shows that about 3.5 million out of a population of 100 million have taken some drug over the past 13 months. But half had taken it only once, and, of those, marijuana was more common than shabu, the local methamphetamine of choice. Occasional or even weekly use does not amount to addiction. As Thailand learned after the Thaksin government extrajudicial killings in 2003, the trade was only briefly stemmed. The drug trade is demand-driven.
Philippines’ Duterte changes his mind, says no personal pope apology for ‘whore’ jibe
Duterte’s positioning of himself as a left-leaning, anti-elitist populist and defender of indigenous Mindanao people is equally dubious. The reality is that he comes from a long line of mixed blood (only a little of it Chinese), inter-related Cebu families. It is a typical Philippine story of provincial elites maintaining power from one generation to the next. His father was governor of Davao province, having been transplanted from Cebu, before becoming a minister in president Ferdinand Marcos’ government. His daughter is now mayor of Davao. The family is also typical of how migration from Cebu and elsewhere in the Visayas colonised much of Mindanao at the expense of the indigenous.
Duterte’s war on drugs in the Philippines can’t hide his policy incompetence
Is Philippine President Duterte playing the United States and China?
China is offering multibillion dollar lures to build badly needed infrastructure. But for 10 years, the Philippines has been running an external surplus and has much unused foreign borrowing capacity, public and private. Its problem has been implementation more than money. Lack of strings or need for economic justification may mean that Chinese-led projects move faster. But no one should underestimate their potential to increase suspicion of China. The current popularity of the “drug war” can only carry other policies a limited distance.
Any attempt to re-orient foreign policy can only be held back by his personal behaviour and erratic pronouncements. They reflect poorly on the Philippines’ chances of progressing to becoming a well-governed and prosperous society if its public delights in a caricature of some tough-guy leader from a third-rate television series. Whatever neighbours think of his foreign policies, his personal behaviour either offends or is regarded as indicative of a nation with a deficit in self-respect.
Philip Bowring is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator