City BeatIn the Trump era, Hong Kong election race carries even more weight for Beijing
With uncertainties rising at home and abroad, the four candidates will need to show they have the qualities to lead
It’s only natural that Beijing has to prepare for the possibility of a worst-case scenario for Hong Kong
A sense of uncertainty is growing around the world, given Trump’s unpredictability, including over Sino-US relations. And it will inevitably have an impact on Beijing’s assessment of the situation in Hong Kong when it makes its final pick for the city’s next chief executive.
Politically, after Trump picked up the phone to talk to Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen – and further agitated Beijing by refusing to commit to the one-China principle – it’s only natural that Beijing has to prepare for the possibility of a worst-case scenario for Hong Kong.
That may well explain why Beijing has repeatedly stressed recently that any collusion between independence advocates in Hong Kong and Taiwan will end in complete failure. It sends out a strong signal that national sovereignty and security will not be compromised, regardless of any policy change towards China that Trump may have in mind.
Still, Beijing’s worries will not go away easily. During the Occupy movement two years ago, Barack Obama promised President Xi that the US would not “interfere” in Hong Kong affairs, an undertaking that China would now regard as something already “gone with the wind”.