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Korean peninsula
Opinion

US concessions on Korean peninsula could go a long way

John Barry Kotch says some flexibility on THAAD and other related issues by the US and others would better serve the common cause of curbing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions

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A giant image of Kim Jong-un and confetti appear at the end of a concert at Pyongyang Arena in the North Korean capital. Washington has not engaged the North Korean ruler since he took power in 2011. Even Beijing has had a testy relationship with him. Photo: Washington Post
John Barry Kotch
Washington’s dismissal out of hand of China’ s recent proposal to halt military exercises by the US and South Korea in exchange for a moratorium on North Korea’s nuclear weapons development and missile tests was a missed opportunity, particularly given that the alternative path of a military response is fraught with peril.
The deployment of the anti-missile defence system THAAD in South Korea is a short-term fix with long-term risks. Whatever the marginal military advantage to be gained over the existing Patriot missile batteries, it must be weighed against the loss of Chinese willingness to exercise diplomatic leverage vis-à-vis North Korea, as well as Beijing’s own concerns that the system’s radar would lock onto its own strategic deterrent. Instead, deployment of THAAD should be made contingent on the success of Chinese efforts to achieve a missile moratorium with North Korea, while working with the People’s Liberation Army to minimise the impact on China’s strategic deterrent and/or eliminating the system altogether. As always, the devil is in the details.

Why the real quarrel between Beijing and Seoul isn’t about THAAD

North Korean farmers work in a field north of the town of Sinuiju. A section of the Great Wall can be seen on the Chinese side of the Yalu River. The way forward diplomatically necessitates an understanding of China’s attitude and behaviour regarding the North. Photo: Reuters
North Korean farmers work in a field north of the town of Sinuiju. A section of the Great Wall can be seen on the Chinese side of the Yalu River. The way forward diplomatically necessitates an understanding of China’s attitude and behaviour regarding the North. Photo: Reuters
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The way forward diplomatically necessitates an understanding of China’s attitude and behaviour regarding the North in multilateral forums, beginning with four-party talks in Geneva (1997-1999) up to the six-party talks in Beijing (2003-2008).

By contrast, US efforts to engage Pyongyang diplomatically in recent years have gone nowhere

At the former venue, China’s representative and future foreign minister, Tang Jiaxuan (唐家璇), took an active, albeit ultimately unsuccessful, role in pressing Pyongyang to stay engaged. Subsequently, at the six-party talks, which aimed to eliminate the North Korean weapons of mass destruction programme, China once again demonstrated commitment, taking charge by both hosting the talks and helping to formulate a process, which, however, fell short in implementation.

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During the six-party talks, China resisted any attempt to take the North Korean nuclear issue to the UN Security Council, arguing that quiet diplomacy was preferable. However, following the adjournment of the talks, China reversed course, demonstrating flexibility by signing onto successive resolutions on sanctions.

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